Ukraine: Clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces ongoing in multiple areas March 26 /update 48

Event

Russian military officials announced March 25 that the initial aims of Russia's operation in Ukraine were complete, stating that Ukraine’s military capability had been significantly damaged by the actions of the Russian armed forces. The statement outlined that the next stage of the war would focus on the "liberation" of the Donbass, possibly indicating a larger shift in Russian military strategy in response to recent military and economic setbacks.

Air raid sirens sounded in Lviv March 26 following at least two large explosions in the city. Initial reports indicate that an oil depot was targeted by missile strikes, injuring five people. City authorities have urged civilians to take shelter, stating that further strikes were possible.

Clashes continue to be reported March 26 between Russian and Russian and Russia-backed forces and the Armed Forces of Ukraine and Ukrainian Territorial Defense units in the vicinity of Kyiv. Fighting is ongoing near Makariv on Zhytomyr Highway, with Russian artillery strikes reported in the west of the city in Nova Buda, Ozershchyna, and Nalyvaikiva. Russian forces appear to have largely taken up defensive positions to the north and west of Kyiv while Ukrainian forces conduct limited counteroffensives, including retaking territory to the east of the city in Lukyanivka and Lukashi.

Heavy fighting continues in and around the Donbas, where increased Russian success may indicate the reprioritization of Russian objectives. In the Luhansk Region, reports suggest that Russians have crossed the Serverssky Donets river south of Izyium and have advanced as far as Kamyanka and Tykhotske, with the possibility that they may continue southwards in an attempt to cut off Ukrainian forces in Donbas. It remains unclear whether Izyum has been captured. Fighting has continued in the towns of Sievierodonetsk, Rubizhne, Lysychansk, and Popasna.

In the Donetsk Region, Russian forces claim to have broken through and taken the villages of Panteleimonivka, Betmanove, Mykhailivka, Stavky, and Troitske, north of Donetsk, although these claims have not been verified. In Mariupol, heavy bombardments and frequent ground assaults are ongoing. Russian and Russia-backed forces have reportedly entered the city center and are engaging Ukrainian defenders in urban warfare.

Elsewhere, clashes have also been reported in the vicinity of Trostyanets, Sumy Region, amid a Ukrainian counterattack to clear the town. Shelling is ongoing in the city of Chernihiv, as well as in Sumy. Near Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces claim to have liberated the city's eastern districts of Mala Rohan and Vilkhivka, while Russian forces have been confirmed to have vacated Snihurivka, east of Mykolaiv.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in the Kherson Region, where Russian forces have maintained a presence since March 2. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Berdyansk and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 20:00-07:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia, the curfew is in place from 20:00-05:00; and, in Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement, or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast in an effort to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to significantly impact the course of the conflict. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, while continuing to close in on Mariupol city center. While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeast Ukraine is relatively secure.

Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)