Ukraine: Clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces ongoing in multiple areas March 27 /update 49

Event

Fighting continues between Russian and Ukrainian forces in multiple areas of Ukraine on March 27. The heaviest clashes continue to be reported in the southeast of the country, where Russian and Russia-backed forces are pursuing their stated intention of "liberating" the Donbas. Ukrainian forces have reportedly repelled continual assaults on Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna in the Luhansk Region. Russian forces have reportedly captured or are contesting control of the towns of Novobakhmutivka and Verkhnotoretske, which lie between Horlivka and Donetsk, in the Donetsk Region. Intense clashes are ongoing in downtown Mariupol, as Russian forces claim to have bisected the city.

Despite Russian military officials announcing on March 25 that the initial aims of the offensive against Ukraine had been achieved and the next phase of the war would concentrate on the Donbas, Russian forces are reportedly continuing efforts to dig in defensively northwest of Kyiv. However, limited Ukrainian counterattacks are reportedly thwarting those efforts. Intense clashes are ongoing in the Irpen and Hostomel areas, to the west and northwest of Kyiv, respectively. Ukraine claims to have surrounded Russian forces in Hostomel; however, this remains unconfirmed.

Limited Ukrainian counterattacks have also been reported in the Sumy Region March 27, where Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken control of Trostyanets and Boromlya to the southeast of Sumy city. Clashes amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive have also been reported in Poltavka and Malynivka in the Zaporizhzhia Region. However, the presence of Russian troops was confirmed in Slavutych, Chernihiv Region, on March 26, after clashes were previously reported in the area for several days. In the Kharkiv Region, Russian forces have clashed with Ukrainian defenders in Husarivka, southwest of Izyum, which has faced repeated Russian ground assaults in recent days; it is unclear if Russian forces are in control of Izyum.

Shelling and missile strikes have continued against targets elsewhere in the country. A missile strike on Dubno in the Rivne Region on the evening of March 26 destroyed an oil depot and sparked a major fire, which emergency crews are continuing to bring under control on March 27. Artillery shelling has sparked numerous small, but uncontrolled fires in and around the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which is controlled by Russian forces. Shelling has also caused many casualties in Stanislav in the Kherson Region and Krasnohorivka in the Donetsk Region, while naval bombardment from the Black Sea has repeatedly struck Odesa in the past 24 hours.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in the Kherson Region, where Russian forces have maintained a presence since March 2. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Berdyansk and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 20:00-07:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia, the curfew is in place from 20:00-05:00; and, in Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase, and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to close in on Mariupol city center. While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeast Ukraine is relatively secure.

Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)