Ukraine: Fighting continues as of early March 7 after localized ceasefires around Mariupol and Volnovakha fail for second consecutive day /update 27

Event

Clashes continue across Ukraine as of early March 7 after ceasefires around Mariupol and Volnovakha failed for a second consecutive day. Local officials announced ceasefires around Mariupol and Volnovakha 10:00-21:00 March 6 to open humanitarian corridors and evacuate civilians from the two cities. Evacuations were scheduled to start 12:00 but the efforts failed amid reports of continued shelling and clashes in both locations. Similar evacuations were halted in both cities March 5 after Ukrainian officials accused Russian forces of continuing to shell the humanitarian corridors.

Fighting continues to be reported in Irpen, some 20 km (12 miles) west-northwest of central Kyiv. In addition, Ukrainian officials stated that the town of Borodianka, located 50 km (31 miles) northwest of central Kyiv, is under Russian control. Elsewhere, violence is focused in the main conflict areas in northern, central, eastern, and southern regions, including urban centers of the Zaporizhzhia Region, and along the line of contact in the Donbas with the support of pro-Russia separatists. Aerial bombardments targeted several areas in the Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions as well as the cities of Kyiv, Mariupol, and Mykolaiv.

Russian troops have also encircled the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, and Sumy. Kherson is under Russian control. After surrounding the southern city of Mariupol and continuing to shell it through March 6, Russian troops are attempting to advance along the southern Black Sea coast. Clashes have also been reported around the town of Voznesensk, located approximately 80km (50 miles) north-northwest of Mykolaiv. Ukrainian military officials have also warned that Russian naval forces are potentially preparing for an amphibious assault as part of an advance on Odesa.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males aged 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipro, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-07:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on the ground situation. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol as of March 6; similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv are ongoing; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations function as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain largely operational, though the railway connection between Kyiv and Irpen was destroyed March 5. Civilian aviation remains suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational in much of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, including in Kyiv, where they are likely attempting to board trains. UZ also operates evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continue across the country as of March 6. Shelling in Sumy Region has disrupted utilities, and reports indicate Okhtyrka is without water, heating, and electricity. Some parts of Sumy city have also lost electricity. Days-long shelling in Mariupol has also resulted in electricity, heating, and water outages. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Russian advances in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine.

Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions have effectively cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov, through Russia already controls access to the sea through control of the Kerch Strait. Further advances to the west of Kherson towards Mykolaiv and Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern city of Odesa.

A Russian flotilla, reportedly including amphibious assault ships, is currently stationed in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ukrainian forces have repelled several Russian attempts to land troops near Odesa since Feb. 24. However, these are believed to have been diversionary in nature and a larger assault would have a severe impact on the city.

Despite recent bilateral negotiations, Russia and Ukraine's positions are almost certainly to remain irreconcilable. Ukraine is demanding a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands Ukraine surrender, disarm, and remain a neutral country outside NATO. Nonetheless, Russia and Ukraine did agree during talks March 3 to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and deliver essential goods to areas impacted by the heaviest fighting. The parties are scheduled to meet for further talks March 7.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)