Ukraine: Kyiv reduces curfew hours March 28; clashes between Russian and Ukrainian forces ongoing in multiple areas /update 50

Event

Authorities in Kyiv have reduced the nightly curfew by two hours March 28 to 21:00-06:00. The curfew covers the city and wider Kyiv Region; only authorized individuals are permitted to leave homes or bomb shelters during curfew hours.

The Mayor of Irpin stated that Ukrainian forces regained control of the city March 28; unconfirmed reports indicate there are no longer any Russian troops at Hostomel Airport (GML). This follows a trend of limited Ukrainian counteroffensives in west and northwest Kyiv amid reports of a possible Russian withdrawal from the area to focus on the Donbas region. Nonetheless, clashes and shelling continue to be reported in Irpin, Hostomel, Bucha, Borodyanka, and Makariv areas. To the east of Kyiv, Ukrainian forces have reportedly recaptured Rudnytske.

The heaviest clashes continue to be reported in the southeast of the country, where Russian and Russia-backed forces are pursuing their stated intention of "liberating" the Donbas, though little territory has changed hands. Ukrainian forces have reportedly faced continual assaults on Severodonetsk, Rubizhne, and Popasna in Luhansk Region. Russian forces have reportedly captured or are contesting control of the towns of Novobakhmutivka and Verkhnotoretske, which lie between Horlivka and Donetsk, in Donetsk Region. Intense clashes are ongoing in downtown Mariupol, as Russian forces claim to have bisected the city.

Limited Ukrainian counterattacks were reported in Sumy Region March 27, where Ukrainian forces have reportedly retaken control of Trostyanets and Boromlya to the southeast of Sumy city. Clashes amid a Ukrainian counteroffensive have also been reported in Poltavka and Malynivka in Zaporizhzhia Region. The presence of Russian troops was confirmed in Slavutych, Chernihiv Region, March 26, after clashes were previously reported in the area for several days; however, Russian forces appear to have left the town as of March 28. In Kharkiv Region, Ukrainian forces claim to have regained control of Husarivka, northwest of Izyum, which has faced repeated Russian ground assaults in recent days. Ukrainian forces continue to fight defensive battles around Kamyanka, Sinichyne, Sukha Kamyanka, and Topolske south of Izyum; it is unclear if Russian forces are in control of Izyum.

Shelling and missile strikes have continued against targets across the country. Kharkiv Region came under intense shelling March 27-28. Missile strikes targeted oil facilities in several cities March 26-27, including Lviv, Lutsk, and Rivne Region's city of Dubno, sparking significant fires. Artillery shelling has sparked numerous small, but uncontrolled fires in and around the Chernobyl Exclusion Zone, which is controlled by Russian forces. Shelling has also caused many casualties in Stanislav in Kherson Region and Krasnohorivka in Donetsk Region.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region, where Russian forces have maintained a presence since March 2. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Berdyansk and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia, the curfew is in place from 20:00-05:00; and, in Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase, and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to close in on Mariupol city center. While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeast Ukraine is relatively secure.

Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)