Ukraine: Reported ceasefire violations complicate evacuations from Sumy and Mariupol March 8 /update 29

Event

Ukraine has established two humanitarian corridors March 8 following talks with Russia and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). A so-called "green corridor" is in effect between Sumy and Poltava until 21:00; while the temporary ceasefire around Sumy has mostly held as of March 8, shelling has prompted the halt of the evacuation from the city on at least one occasion. Additionally, an airstrike in Sumy killed 21 people and wounded several others early March 8. A second green corridor has been set up between the encircled city of Mariupol and Zaporizhzhia. The corridor has been shelled repeatedly throughout the day despite a ceasefire agreement and it is unclear whether any refugees have successfully fled Mariupol March 8.

Elsewhere in the country, Russian bombardments and offensive actions have continued. The heaviest clashes have been reported west and northwest of Kyiv, particularly near Irpin, as well as near Chernihiv city and near Marinka in Donetsk Region. Kharkiv continues to come under heavy bombardment with at least four additional fatalities confirmed March 8. Shelling and aerial bombardments have also recently targeted several areas in Odesa, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Mariupol, and Sumy regions.

Russian troops have encircled or partially encircled the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, and Sumy. Kherson is under Russian control.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males ages 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipro, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-07:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Depending on the ground situation, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol; similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv are intermittent; trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations function as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain largely operational, though the railway connection between Kyiv and Irpin was destroyed March 5. Civilian aviation remains suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) is currently operating evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions. UZ continues to operate intermittent services throughout much of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, particularly in Lviv, from where evacuation services to international destinations are coordinated. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continue across much of the country. Power, water, gas, and other utilities or amenities have been disrupted throughout Sumy Region, as well as in Okhtyrka, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts. It has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Russian advances in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine.

Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions have effectively cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov. Further advances to the west of Kherson toward Mykolaiv and Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea. Despite failing to capture Mykolaiv thus far, Russian troops are attempting to advance westward along the Black Sea coast. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern city of Odesa.

Despite recent bilateral negotiations, Russia and Ukraine's positions are almost certain to remain irreconcilable. Ukraine demands a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands Ukraine surrender, disarm, and declare itself to be a neutral country remaining outside NATO and the EU. Nonetheless, Russia and Ukraine did agree during talks March 7 to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and deliver essential goods to areas impacted by the heaviest fighting.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)