Ukraine: Russian forces announce ceasefire and opening of humanitarian corridors in Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv and Sumy from 10:00 March 7 /update 28

Event

Russia has declared a unilateral "regime of silence" or temporary ceasefire and opened humanitarian corridors around the cities of Kyiv, Mariupol, Kharkiv, and Sumy on March 7 to allow for the evacuation of civilians. Evacuations were scheduled to start at 10:00, though it is unclear if the ceasefires are being observed or whether the evacuations are underway. Russia has purportedly only opened humanitarian corridors from these cities to locations in Belarus and Russia; no westward routes will be governed by the regime of silence.

Previous attempts at localized ceasefires and evacuations on March 5 and March 6 failed. Local officials in Mariupol and Volnovakha called for ceasefires to allow for the opening of humanitarian corridors for refugees, but the efforts failed amid reports of continued shelling and clashes in both locations.

Heavy fighting continues to be reported in the country. The city of Mykolaiv came under heavy artillery and rocket bombardment March 7 after Ukrainian forces withstood a ground assault March 6. Intense clashes have been ongoing on the city's outskirts since March 4. Fighting continues to be reported to the north and northwest of Kyiv; Ukrainian officials stated that the town of Borodianka, located 50 km (31 miles) northwest of central Kyiv, is under Russian control as of March 6.

Rocket and missile attacks have continued in multiple locations. A rocket attack on Vinnytsia March 6 killed nine people and wounded six others. Shelling and aerial bombardments also targeted several areas in the Odesa, Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy regions overnight and the cities of Kyiv and Mariupol. Elsewhere in the country, clashes are focused in the main conflict areas in northern, central, eastern, and southern regions, including urban centers of the Zaporizhzhia Region, and along the line of contact in the Donbas with the support of pro-Russia separatists.

Russian troops have also encircled the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, and Sumy. Kherson is under Russian control. Clashes have also been reported around the town of Voznesensk, located approximately 80km (50 miles) north of Mykolaiv.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males aged 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipro, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-07:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Depending on the ground situation, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol as of March 6; similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv are ongoing; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations function as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain largely operational, though the railway connection between Kyiv and Irpen was destroyed March 5. Civilian aviation remains suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Though reports indicate severe delays and congestion, Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational in much of the country. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, particularly in Lviv, from where evacuation services to international destinations are coordinated. UZ also operates evacuation trains from the Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continue across much of the country. Shelling in Sumy Region has disrupted utilities, and reports indicate Okhtyrka is without water, heating, and electricity. Some parts of Sumy city have also lost electricity. Heavy artillery shelling in Mariupol has also resulted in electricity, heating, and water outages. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts. It has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Russian advances in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine.

Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions have effectively cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov. Further advances to the west of Kherson towards Mykolaiv and Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea. Despite failing to capture Mykolaiv thus far, Russian troops are attempting to advance westward along the Black Sea coast. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern city of Odesa.

A Russian flotilla, reportedly including amphibious assault ships, is currently stationed in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ukrainian forces have repelled several Russian attempts to land troops near Odesa since Feb. 24. However, these are believed to have been diversionary in nature, and a larger assault would severely impact the city.

Despite recent bilateral negotiations, Russia and Ukraine's positions are almost certainly to remain irreconcilable. Ukraine demands a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands Ukraine surrender, disarm, and remain a neutral country outside NATO. Nonetheless, Russia and Ukraine did agree during talks March 3 to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and deliver essential goods to areas impacted by the heaviest fighting. The parties are scheduled to meet for further talks March 7.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)