Ukraine: Russian offensive against Ukraine continues as of early March 4 /update 20

Event

Russia's military offensive against Ukraine continues on multiple fronts as of early March 4. Russia and Ukraine agreed to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and deliver essential goods to areas impacted by the heaviest fighting during negotiations March 3; however, the two sides did not reach a ceasefire. The parties will likely meet for a third round of talks in the coming days.

The heaviest fighting is ongoing in Kharkiv, where missile and artillery strikes continue to be reported. Areas throughout the city have been struck, including central Kharkiv and mostly residential areas. Clashes have intensified in areas west and northwest of Kyiv March 3 and in the Zhytomyr Region. Fighting has also been reported in Enerhodar, located around 100 km (62 miles) southwest of Zaporizhzhia. Authorities have warned that Russian troops are moving towards the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia.

Offensives by Russian and Russia-backed forces continue in multiple other areas of Ukraine, including in the Chernihiv Region, particularly in areas west of Chernihiv city and northeast of Kyiv. Artillery strikes within Chernihiv city have also increased in the last 24 hours; at least 33 people were killed and 18 injured in Chernihiv as of the evening of March 3. Fighting and artillery strikes have also been reported in multiple areas of Sumy Region in the northeast and the wider Kharkiv Region in the east. The shelling in the Sumy Region has disrupted utilities; reports indicate that Okhtyrka is without water, heating, and electricity. Some parts of the city of Sumi have also lost electricity.

Russian forces continue attacks on multiple urban centers in the Zaporizhzhia Region and along the line of contact in the Donbas with the support of pro-Russia separatists. Missile and artillery strikes have impacted multiple areas, including civilian areas, since the conflict began.

Additionally, Russian troop movements have been reported near Mykolaiv, where airborne forces reportedly landed at an airfield near the city March 2. A Russian flotilla, reportedly including amphibious assault ships, is currently stationed in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ukrainian forces have repelled several Russian attempts to land troops near Odesa since Feb. 24. However, these are believed to have been diversionary in nature and a larger assault would have a severe impact on the city.

Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Russian forces captured the southern city of Kherson March 2. Russian and Russia-backed forces are also believed to have encircled Mariupol and clashes and artillery strikes continue to be reported in the city.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males aged 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipropetrovsk, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-08:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on the ground situation. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Shortages of basic supplies continue to be reported in Kharkiv and Mariupol as of March 3 and similar shortages are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Russian bombardments have also caused widespread power outages in Mariupol and will likely disrupt utilities in other cities. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased in the past 24 hours. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely continue.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv have resumed; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations are functioning as bomb shelters. Civilian aviation is suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational in most of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, including in Kyiv, where they are likely attempting to board trains. UZ is also operating evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continued across the country as of March 3. The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Russian advances in the Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine. Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia may cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov, while further advances to the west of Kherson towards Mykolaiv and Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa.

Despite recent bilateral negotiations, Russia and Ukraine's positions are expected to remain irreconcilable. Ukraine is demanding a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands Ukraine surrender, disarm, and remain a neutral country outside NATO.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)