Ukraine: Russian offensive against Ukraine continues as of March 4 /update 21

Event

Russia's military offensive against Ukraine continues on multiple fronts March 4 after negotiations between the parties March 3 failed to reach a ceasefire. The heaviest fighting continues to be reported in Kharkiv city, where ground attacks and aerial bombardment have caused multiple casualties. Intense clashes are also ongoing to the northwest of Kyiv, as well as in Zhytomyr Region. Chernihiv city has come under intense artillery shelling and airstrikes; at least 47 people have been killed since the bombardment began March 3. Clashes are also ongoing elsewhere in Chernihiv Region, particularly to the north, northwest and west of the city.

Offensives by Russian and Russia-backed forces continue in multiple other areas of Ukraine. Fighting and artillery strikes have been reported in multiple areas of Sumy Region in the northeast and the wider Kharkiv Region in the east. Several cities continue to be targeted by heavy artillery shelling and airstrikes including the outskirts of Mykolaiv, parts of the Sumy region, particularly the city of Okhtyrka, as well as the widely reported shelling of Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Mariupol. Russian forces continue attacks on multiple urban centers in Zaporizhzhia Region and along the line of contact in the Donbas with the support of pro-Russia separatists. Missile and artillery strikes have impacted multiple areas, including residential areas since the conflict began.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males aged 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Curfews are in effect 22:00-06:00 in multiple regions, including Cherkasy, Lviv, Poltava, Vinnytsia, Volyn, Zaporizhzhia, and Zhytomyr. Curfew hours are 18:00-06:00 in Kharkiv, 19:00-06:00 in Odesa and Mykolaiv, 20:00-06:00 in Dnipropetrovsk, 20:00-07:00 in Kyiv, 18:00-06:00 in Chernihiv, and 22:00-08:00 in Ivano-Frankivsk. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on the ground situation. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Shortages of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, are being reported in Chernihiv as of March 4, as well as in Kharkiv and Mariupol; similar shortages are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Ukrainian forces in Chernihiv have blockaded all entrances to the city; residents are instructed to remain indoors. Russian bombardments have also caused widespread power, water, and heating outages in Mariupol and will likely disrupt utilities in other cities. Other conflict-impacted cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv have resumed; however, trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations are functioning as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain operational. Civilian aviation is suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Ukrainian Railways (UZ) services are operational in much of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, including in Kyiv, where they are likely attempting to board trains. UZ is also operating evacuation trains from Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Odesa regions. Authorities have canceled train services to Slovakia.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continued across the country as of March 4. Widespread water and power disruptions have been reported in Mariupol as a result of heavy Russian bombardments in recent days. Shelling in Sumy Region has also disrupted utilities; reports indicate Okhtyrka is without water, heating, and electricity. Some parts of Sumy city have also lost electricity. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

Clashes are also ongoing in close proximity to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in Enerhodar; resultant damage to the ZNPP may disrupt power distribution. Shelling on March 3 resulted in a fire at a training complex outside the facility; firefighters extinguished the blaze early March 4. As a precaution, authorities shut down some operations at the plant, but there are no reported damages to the facilities. Ukrainian regulators are not reporting any changes to radiation levels at the site.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts and has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Russian advances in Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, and Donetsk regions may allow Russian and Russia-backed forces to link fronts in southern and southeastern Ukraine. Russian troops are reportedly advancing towards Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih from the direction of Kherson, as of March 4.

Further Russian advances in Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions may cut Ukraine off from the Sea of Azov, while further advances to the west of Kherson towards Mykolaiv and Odesa threaten to cut Ukraine off from supplies via the Black Sea. Additional advances in these regions will likely aid Russian forces in a potential future assault on the southwestern cities of Mykolaiv and Odesa.

A Russian flotilla, reportedly including amphibious assault ships, is currently stationed in the Black Sea near Odesa. Ukrainian forces have repelled several Russian attempts to land troops near Odesa since Feb. 24. However, these are believed to have been diversionary in nature and a larger assault would have a severe impact on the city.

Despite recent bilateral negotiations, Russia and Ukraine's positions are expected to remain irreconcilable. Ukraine is demanding a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia demands Ukraine surrender, disarm, and remain a neutral country outside NATO. Nonetheless, Russia and Ukraine did agree during talks on March 3 to establish humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians and deliver essential goods to areas impacted by the heaviest fighting. The parties will likely meet for a third round of talks in the coming days.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)