Ukraine: Russian strikes target military base near Lviv early March 13, killing at least 35 people and wounding over 130 others /update 35

Event

Russian forces fired some 30 missiles at the International Center for Peacekeeping and Security (IPSC) near Yavoriv early March 13. The attack on the site, a military training base close to the city of Lviv and the Polish border, killed at least 35 people and wounded over 130 others. The incident highlights the expanding geographic scope of Russian military operations in Ukraine to include areas in the west of the country; British authorities have asserted the move marks a "significant escalation" of the conflict. The bombardment came just hours after the Russian government stated March 12 that Western arms convoys to Ukraine could be considered "legitimate targets." Russian strikes also notably targeted Ivano-Frankivsk International Airport (IFO) March 13, nearly destroying the airport's infrastructure, as well as the southern port city of Mykolaiv, killing nine civilians in what was one of the deadliest attacks on a residential area since the Russian offensive against Ukraine began Feb. 24.

Heavy fighting between Ukrainian and Russian forces continues in multiple areas of Ukraine, with Russian forces targeting populated areas with airstrikes and artillery fire amid stiff Ukrainian resistance. Russian forces have continued their intense shelling of Mariupol. Heavy clashes and Russian bombardments have also been reported in the outskirts of Kyiv and in Chernihiv; Ukrainian officials have claimed that Ukrainian forces have staged a counterattack in Kharkiv Region and around Mykolaiv. Parts of the Russian military column stalled to the north of Kyiv have dispersed, probably as part of a Russian attempt to reposition forces ahead of a likely offensive push to encircle the city within the coming days.

Russian forces notably shot and killed a US journalist and wounded a photographer in Irpen, northwest of Kyiv, after the duo was stopped at a checkpoint March 13.

Russian forces have complicated the movement of people and goods through humanitarian corridors in recent days, including near Kyiv and around Mariupol. While Mariupol remains under Ukrainian control, Ukrainian authorities and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) have warned of a humanitarian catastrophe unless the besieged city receives aid, as its reserves of food, water, and other basic goods are running out; a large convoy of humanitarian aid had failed to reach the city as of late March 13 but is slated to continue on its journey from its current location around Berdyansk, some 80 km (50 miles) to west of Mariupol, March 14. Local authorities have reported that the incessant, multi-day bombardment of Mariupol has killed over 2,100 people.

Russia has appointed a new mayor in Melitopol as of March 13 who has called on the city's residents to adjust to the "new reality" and stop resisting the Russian occupation. The move comes after more than 2,000 residents of Melitopol protested Russian forces' arrest and kidnapping of the city's previous mayor March 12, highlighting Russian forces' apparent difficulty in enforcing order in some cities under their occupation. Ukrainian officials have also claimed that the mayor of Dniprorudne was abducted March 13.

Russian troops have encircled or partially encircled the cities of Kharkiv, Mykolaiv, Chernihiv, Mariupol, Polohy, Enerhodar, and Sumy. Kherson, Melitopol, and Berdyansk are under Russian occupation.

According to figures released by the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, at least 596 civilians have been killed and more than 1,000 others wounded since the war began Feb. 24.

Martial Law, Curfews, Disruptions
Martial law and a nationwide general military mobilization are in effect. Males ages 18-60 are prohibited from leaving the country. Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions between various times. Depending on the ground situation, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice. Civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for persons seeking urgent medical care and workers in critical infrastructure. Public transport is unavailable during curfew hours.

Reports indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Polohy, and Mariupol; similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives. Other conflict-ridden cities will likely continue to see queues at ATMs, supermarkets, and petrol stations, as well as significant traffic congestion on major westward roads.

Ukrainian authorities have closed the country's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Reports also indicate significant road travel disruptions at Ukraine's western borders as thousands of civilians flee the conflict, though congestion has reportedly eased. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open; these states have increased security at their respective borders with Ukraine to aid in the reception of refugees. Significant delays at border crossings into neighboring states will likely persist and may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Critical Infrastructure
Metro services in Kyiv are intermittent; trains do not operate during curfew hours and will likely cease during air raids as many stations function as bomb shelters. Rail and road routes to the south and west of Kyiv remain largely operational, though the railway connection between Kyiv and Irpen was destroyed March 5. Civilian aviation remains suspended in Ukraine, and the nation's seaports are closed. Russia has temporarily stopped commercial shipping in the Sea of Azov.

Slovakia has resumed international rail services with Ukraine. Ukrainian Railways (UZ) is currently operating evacuation trains from multiple regions, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa regions. UZ continues to operate intermittent services throughout much of the country, though reports indicate severe delays and congestion. Rail services are subject to disruptions with little warning. Reports indicate large crowds at several operational stations, particularly in Lviv, from where evacuation services to international destinations are coordinated.

Intermittent telecommunications and internet disruptions continue across much of the country. Power, water, gas, and other utilities or amenities have been disrupted throughout Sumy Region, as well as in Okhtyrka, Mariupol, and Kharkiv. Similar utility disruptions are highly likely in other urban centers facing artillery and rocket bombardment.

The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) only allows the withdrawal of up to UAH 30,000 (USD 1,000) in cash from foreign currency accounts. It has limited the permitted cash withdrawal from domestic currency accounts to UAH 100,000 (USD 3,340) per day. The bank has also suspended cross-border currency payments and the replenishment of electronic wallets.

Context

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asserted March 12 that Moscow could only take Kyiv if it "razes the city to the ground," indicating that Ukrainian leadership is unlikely to voluntarily submit to an agreement that surrenders the capital city to the Russian military. Zelensky has, however, said that he is open to discussions with Russian President Vladimir Putin, possibly in Jerusalem with the mediation of Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett.

Negotiations between Ukrainian and Russian officials have yet to yield any concrete results; however, Russian and Ukrainian officials intimated March 13 that talks are reportedly progressing, with positive results possible in the coming days. Ukraine has demanded a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia has demanded that Ukraine surrender, disarm, and declare itself to be a neutral country remaining outside NATO and the EU.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)