Ukraine: Russia's offensive remains stalled in many areas as of late March 20; heavy fighting continuing in south and east /update 42

Event

The Russian offensive against Ukraine remains largely static as of late March 20, with mobile ground operations appearing to be concentrated in the south of the country as well as the Donbas region. Particularly heavy fighting has been taking place in and around the city of Mariupol in recent days as the Kremlin seeks to achieve its military aim of establishing a land bridge between Russia and Crimea, as well as seizing control of the Donetsk and Luhansk. Mariupol has been subjected to heavy bombardment from both Russian land-based artillery and naval gunnery from the Sea of Azov, as ground troops push to penetrate the city center. Nevertheless, a number of Ukrainian regional commanders in other parts of the country have reported that the night of March 19-20 passed relatively quietly, with Russian forces mostly engaged in regrouping rather than launching major operations in their sectors.

Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes against targets in Ukraine continue as of March 20. Daily shelling has been reported in several cities, including the capital, Kyiv, as well as Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Sumy. In recent days, shelling and aerial bombardments have also occurred in Vinnytsia, Izyum, Kremenchuk, Bila Tserkva, Nikopol, Mykolaiv, Kyiv, Izmail, Odesa, Poltava, and Zaporizhzhia. Russian missiles have also sporadically targeted military facilities in western Ukraine, including an aviation repair facility near Danylo Halytskyi International Airport (LWO) in the Lviv Region along with a missile and aircraft munitions depot near the village of Deliatyn in the Ivano-Frankivsk Region.

Though Russian advances have slowed or halted, ground assaults continue to take place in several locations, albeit at a lower intensity than in the initial phase of the conflict. Russian forces have clashed with Ukrainian troops on the outskirts of Kyiv, Kharkiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv without making significant advances. Inconclusive clashes have also reportedly taken place on the outskirts of Izyum, in Kharkiv Region, as well as in areas surrounding the city.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Residents have held protests in locations throughout the Kherson Region in recent days. Elsewhere, protests have been held in Berdyansk and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation. These actions highlight the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation is suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 20:00 March 20 through 07:00 on March 21; in Mikolaiv, a nightly 20:00-06:00 curfew will enter into force on March 20. In Zaporizhzhia, authorities have imposed a curfew through 06:00 March 21; the city's railway station has suspended operations during this time frame. Authorities in the Rivne Region have declared a 22:00-06:00 curfew, although it is unclear how long the measure will remain in force. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for workers in critical infrastructure, and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on the ground situation, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials are ongoing. Although recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, officials from both sides have intimated that progress is being made. Both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened with Moscow no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees. However, the official negotiating positions of each country are still far apart. Ukraine has demanded a ceasefire and the withdrawal of Russian forces, while Russia has demanded that Ukraine surrender, disarm, and declare itself to be a neutral country remaining outside NATO and the EU.

The Verkhovna Rada (parliament) has voted to extend martial law through April 25. Martial law gives the government emergency powers to carry out extraordinary measures for the defense of the country. Public gatherings are prohibited and authorities may use private property for the needs of defense.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)