Ukraine: Ukrainian troops continue limited offensive on the outskirts of Kyiv March 24 /update 46

Event

Ukrainian troops have continued their limited counter-offensive in the Kyiv area as of March 24. US officials have indicated that the Ukrainian offensive to the east of the city has pushed Russian troops back an estimated 35 km (22 miles). Ukrainian troops also reportedly recaptured Makariv located 70 km (43 miles) west of Kyiv and Moschun located 35 km (22 miles) northwest of Kyiv. Ukrainian forces have previously reportedly pushed Russian forces eastwards from positions near Mykolaiv.

The Ukrainian Navy had reportedly destroyed a Russian landing ship near the southeastern port city of Berdyans'k March 24. Berdyans'k is currently occupied by Russian forces.

Russia's offensive against Ukraine remains largely static as of March 24, with major ground assaults largely concentrated on the southeast of the country. The most intense fighting is ongoing in and around the towns of Severodonetsk and Rubizhne in the Luhansk Region. While clashes have been reported throughout the Donetsk Region, the most intense fighting is centered on separatist efforts to capture a series of towns lying between Donetsk city and Horlivka. Heavy bombardment of the strategic port city of Mariupol is ongoing; civilian casualties are almost certainly mounting, as residential areas and critical infrastructure are increasingly struck. Russian and Russia-backed forces are continually launching ground assaults from the east and west of the city.

Although Russian offensive operations appear to have stalled in places, Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement, or otherwise regain the initiative of the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days. Ukrainian forces have conducted some successful attacks northwest of Kyiv in recent days, including in the outlying town of Moshcun. Russian air, missile, and artillery strikes against targets in Ukraine are continuing. A missile strike March 24 near a post office in Kharkiv killed at least six and wounded more than a dozen civilians. Bombardments, including artillery and missiles, have also struck targets in the Sumy, Mykolaiv, Ternopil, Poltava, Kirovohrad, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Odesa regions.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue to take place in multiple urban centers. Most protests are reported in the Kherson Region, where Russian forces have been in control of Kherson city since March 2. Russian troops reportedly used tear gas to disperse a rally in Kherson March 22. Several previous rallies have also been subject to dispersal by Russian forces, with unconfirmed reports indicating Russian troops opened fire on protesters during rallies March 21 and March 4. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Berdyansk and Melitopol, which are also under Russian occupation. These actions highlight the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and multiple other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 20:00-07:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia, the curfew is in place from 20:00-05:00; and, in Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions are in place for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

It is becoming increasingly clear that Russia’s offensives against multiple cities have stalled. Resultantly, Russian forces in most parts of the country, except the southeast and the south, are increasingly changing tack from mobile ground assaults to defensive military operations. Russian forces in the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy regions are reportedly digging in defensively and laying mines, indicating their intention to hold territory they have captured while they await reinforcement, resupply, or key victories elsewhere in the country, which may then provide them with relief troops.

Offensive operations have increasingly focused on Russia's main goal, securing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, while continuing to close in on Mariupol city center. While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeast Ukraine is relatively secure.

Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened. Moscow is reportedly no longer demanding Ukraine's unconditional surrender, while Kyiv has indicated a willingness to abandon the pursuit of NATO membership in exchange for security guarantees.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)