Europe: Conflict-related sanctions continue to cause disruptions in Europe and Russia April 1 /update 32

Event

Several governments are maintaining a plethora of international sanctions against Russia in response to its Feb. 24 invasion of Ukraine. The sanctions target the country's banking and finance sector, international travel capabilities, and specific Russian companies and citizens. Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus, and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe.

Still, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. However, flight availability has been significantly reduced. While there may be an elevated threat of arbitrary politically motivated detentions until tensions ease, the likelihood of such actions remains low.

Airspace Closures
The EU has prohibited all Russian-owned, -registered, or -controlled aircraft, including private and charter flights, from landing in, taking off from, or transiting any EU nation. Switzerland, the UK, Canada, the US, and several additional countries have imposed similar bans. Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries. Flights from these countries can only be conducted with a special permit issued by Rosaviatsiya or the Russian Foreign Ministry. Airspace closures are resulting in significant disruptions to air travel, including scheduling changes and lengthier flight times, as carriers are forced to change routes.

Aside from national airspace closures, several airlines have either partially or fully suspended services using Russian airspace.

• SriLankan Airlines (UL) has suspended its service from Colombo to Moscow until further notice.

• Vietnam Airlines (VN) has suspended its services to Russia until further notice.

• Air France (AF) has suspended services to and overflights via Russia until further notice. Flights to and from China, South Korea, and Japan have been modified.

• Lufthansa (LH), Wizz Air (W6), and KLM (KL) have also halted flights to Russia temporarily; British Airways (BA) has stopped its service to Moscow.

• US carrier Delta (DL) has suspended its code-share arrangement with Russian flag carrier Aeroflot (SU).

• Swiss Airlines (LX) has suspended services to Russia.

• AZAL Azerbaijan Airlines (J2) and its low-cost subsidiary Buta Airways have both suspended flights to Russia due to insurance and safety concerns.

• Korean Air (KE) has announced a suspension of its passenger flights to Russia and the rerouting of its cargo flights to avoid stopping in Moscow for fuel through April 30.

• Kazakhstan's Air Astana (KC) is suspending all flights to and from Russia; moreover, the carrier has stopped flying through Russian airspace and is rerouting all of its flights to other destinations which would normally transit Russia.

Rosaviatsiya is discouraging Russian airlines from conducting flights abroad due to concerns that current sanctions would lead to the seizure of leased aircraft. Several Russian airlines suspended international flights as a result, including Aeroflot and its subsidiaries, as well as S7 Airlines (S7). Certain countries in Asia and the Middle East have issued permits for Russian airlines; some carriers have resumed some international flights but services remain subject to significant disruptions.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued a warning for Ukraine and surrounding regions, including an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. Moldova has reopened its airspace following a temporary closure. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Domestic Air Restrictions
Russia is maintaining the suspension of commercial flight operations at several southern and central airports until at least April 7. Impacted airports include Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista International Airport (ESL), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), Voronezh International Airport (VOZ), and Simferopol International Airport (SIP).

Embassy Warnings
Several governments have issued travel advisories that recommend against travel to Russia and that citizens currently in Russia depart the country.

• The US State Department has advised all US citizens to leave the country immediately.

• The UK's Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) has advised UK nationals whose presence in Russia is not essential to consider leaving by commercial means.

• The French Ministry for Foreign Affairs (MFA) strongly urges all French citizens in Russia to leave the country if their presence is not essential.

• The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade has advised all citizens to leave Russia immediately.

• The government of Canada has issued a warning advising all citizens to leave the country while commercial means are still available.

• The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands advises citizens to leave Russia.

Several countries have also advised against all nonessential travel or all travel to Russia. Additionally, US authorities have suspended operations at the nation's embassy in Minsk and authorized the voluntary departure of nonemergency employees and family members working at the embassy in Moscow.

Communications, Social Media
Instagram is blocked and access to Facebook and Twitter has been restricted in Russia.

A Ukrainian cyber guerrilla warfare group has claimed it will launch cyberattacks against Russian infrastructure involved in moving troops and weapons to Ukraine. This could include rail infrastructure, telecommunications networks, and power grids; if successful, this could result in significant disruptions to business and services in Russia and Belarus.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security measures. Multiple NATO members in the region have invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty. They could increase the readiness of their militaries as a result, though this is not an indication that they expect to become engaged in the conflict.

Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency; Lithuania has tightened constituent measures to include a prohibition on collecting information on strategic sites or staging public events supporting Russia's actions. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open and are receiving refugees; special rail services shuttling evacuees across the border are available at some crossing points. These countries are also likely to maintain heightened troop deployments near their borders with Ukraine over at least the short term. Enhanced security measures and a sharp increase in individuals attempting to leave Ukraine will likely result in border crossing delays.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; Ukrainian citizens are, however, permitted to return.

Authorities in Finland have suspended Allegro train services between St. Petersburg and Helsinki; Allegro was the only regular rail service operating between Russia and the EU.

Sanctions
Authorities in the US, the UK, and the EU have agreed to impose economic sanctions on Russia. These include excluding Russian organizations from the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT) system, forbidding citizens and companies from conducting transactions with several Russian organizations, including the Russian central bank, and freezing foreign-held assets of Russian companies and organizations. Sanctions have been periodically strengthened to encompass more entities or close loopholes. Notably, the US sanctioned a number of Russian technology companies on March 31 that are allegedly assisting the Russian military evade sanctions.

The EU has blocked seven Russian and three Belarusian banks from the SWIFT global financial messaging system. Some international payment networks and mobile payment providers have suspended certain Russian financial institutions' access to their networks or have otherwise limited services in Russia. Notably, payment company PayPal has halted services in Russia, while electronic payment companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have suspended operations in Russia. The moves prohibit Mastercard, Visa, and American Express cards issued in Russia from working abroad and foreign-issued Mastercard, Visa, and American Express cards from working in Russia. American Express has also suspended all operations in Belarus. Western Union has suspended its operations in Russia and Belarus, reducing options for sending money internationally to or from those countries.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds, as well as shortages of essential goods due to panic buying.

Russian authorities have imposed countermeasures intended to limit the impact of sanctions, including prohibiting Russian citizens from exiting the country with more than USD 10,000 in foreign currency and capital controls preventing foreign companies from selling Russian assets. Additionally, the sale of foreign currency is banned until Sept. 9. Russian nationals with existing foreign currency accounts may only withdraw up to USD 10,000, in USD only, until Sept. 9. The Kremlin has imposed travel bans on several US and Canadian officials, including US President Joe Biden and Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. Russian authorities have also banned the export of over 200 products, including telecommunications, agricultural, electrical, and technological equipment.

The Kremlin maintains a list of "unfriendly" nations that are enforcing sanctions against Russia. The list includes all EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, among several others. Russian companies will require approval from a special commission to conduct transactions with entities based in countries on the list of unfriendly nations.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree March 31 requiring unfriendly nations purchasing gas from Russia to make payments in Russian rubles. European governments have refused to comply with the Kremlin's new measure and plan to continue purchasing gas using euros or US dollars. Moscow, in turn, has threatened to stop supplying gas to countries that do not make payments in rubles. Given that suspending the sale of gas would cause significant harm to Russia as well as European government customers, both sides will likely make concessions to avoid this; Russia has proposed a mechanism whereby foreign governments can make payments in foreign currency to a Russian bank which will then convert the amount to rubles. Nonetheless, EU governments, including Germany and Austria, have taken formal steps to begin rationing gas in the event Russia does cut off supply.

Russian officials announced plans to restrict entry into Russia for nationals of unfriendly countries March 28. Authorities did not provide details on the retaliatory visa measures being prepared and when they would come into force.

Nearly 300 international companies have ceased or significantly reduced operations in Russia due to sanctions or in protest over the Kremlin's decision to invade, including retail, shipping, and telecommunications companies. Authorities in the UK, the EU, and the US have also prohibited the export of certain luxury items. This will likely result in a reduction in available goods and services across Russia. Russian authorities have threatened companies that do pull out of the country with asset seizure and the arrest of employees in Russia who are critical of the government's actions.

Authorities in the US have banned the import of Russian oil, gas, and coal products. Officials in the UK have stated they would phase out Russian oil imports by the end of 2022, and EU officials have asserted they will aim to reduce imports of Russian gas by two-thirds by 2023. The measures will likely result in increased fuel prices in those regions.

The EU has prohibited two notable Russia-owned media organizations from broadcasting within the bloc. Authorities in Russia have suspended several independent Russian media organizations and restricted access to international media companies for reporting on the invasion outside of government-approved parameters. The Duma has also passed laws making the spread of what authorities deem to be false information punishable by 15 years' imprisonment.

Maritime Disruptions
Turkish authorities briefly closed the Bosporus strait to large cargo vessels March 26 following the discovery of a naval mine in the Black Sea north of Istanbul. A second mine was found off of the Turkish coastal town of Igneada, near the Turkish-Bulgarian border, March 28. The incidents come after the Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) warned March 19 that some 420 Ukrainian naval mines had come loose following a storm in the Black Sea and could drift southward as far as the Bosporus. The Turkish Samsun NAVTEX station subsequently issued a warning to seafarers regarding the risk of mines, while other nations have warned their merchant fleets to avoid the area.

Civilian vessels cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or Sea of Azov, both important waterways for the global supply of grain, iron, and oil. Several civilian vessels have been damaged in the region, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. There is also a significant buildup of cargo vessels at the Kerch Strait, with several other vessels remaining stuck in Ukrainian ports.

Several governments, including the UK, have banned Russian-connected ships from their seaports; various authorities have also seized Russian-owned vessels.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials. Such incidents could increase depending on the severity of any Western economic sanctions.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications
UK Travel Advice Russia
US Embassy in Russia