Europe: Russia to cease supplying gas to Poland and Bulgaria as of April 27 /update 46

Event

Russia plans to stop supplying natural gas to Poland and Bulgaria starting April 27. Although officials in Moscow have not given an exact reason for this move, the decision is likely in response to the refusal by several European governments, including Poland and Bulgaria, to accept the Kremlin's demand that so-called "unfriendly nations" pay for gas in rubles. Polish authorities assert that their nation has sufficient reserves to avoid the move having a major impact on households. The Bulgarian government, on the other hand, is working to secure alternative gas suppliers. Russian authorities may decide to cut off natural gas deliveries to other European countries in the near term.

Conflict-related sanctions against Russia continue to cause disruptions in Europe as of April 26.

Airspace Closures
The airspace of numerous countries remains closed to all Russian aircraft and flights. Russia has implemented reciprocal bans from Russian airspace for airlines operated by those countries, which include EU member nations, the UK, Canada, the US, Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan, among others. The airspace closures have prompted flight schedule changes and lengthier flight times as carriers are forced to adjust routes. In addition, several airlines not necessarily impacted by the national airspace closures have decided to partially or fully suspend services using Russian airspace.

European Air Travel Restrictions
Belarus has partially closed its airspace, including the southern Brest Region and areas south of Asipovichy and Krichev in the Mogilev Region. The European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) has also issued an advisory to avoid using the airspace within 100 nautical miles (185 km/115 miles) of the Belarus-Ukraine and Russia-Ukraine borders. To view the full EASA warning, click here.

Russian Travel Restrictions
Russia's Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) has extended a ban on flight operations at 10 airports in the country's southwest and at one airport in Russian-annexed Crimea until at least 03:45 MSK May 1. The facilities are Rostov-on-Don Airport (RVI), Krasnodar International Airport (KRR), Anapa Airport (AAQ), Gelendzhik Airport (GDZ), Elista International Airport (ESL), Belgorod International Airport (EGO), Bryansk International Airport (BZK), Lipetsk Airport (LPK), Kursk Vostochny Airport (URS), and Voronezh International Airport (VOZ) in Russia, in addition to Simferopol International Airport (SIP) in Russian-annexed Crimea.

Russia has scrapped the simplified visa process available for diplomats and journalists from the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland. Holders of diplomatic passports from these countries will be required to obtain a visa to enter Russia.

Travel Warnings
Several governments, including those of the US, France, the UK, Australia, and Canada, have issued travel advisories calling on their nationals to avoid travel to Russia and for those within that country to depart by commercial means when it is safe to do so.

Additionally, multiple governments have expelled numerous Russian diplomats on various grounds, including espionage and other national security concerns. Most recently, the government of North Macedonia ordered the expulsion of six Russian diplomats. Moscow typically retaliates in a similar fashion; the Kremlin ordered the closure of the Estonian and Latvian consulates in Saint Petersburg, as well as the Lithuanian consulates in Saint Petersburg and Pskov, and the expulsion of 36 diplomats from Austria, Belgium, and the Netherlands after these nations expelled Russian diplomats. Such tit-for-tat moves may result in a reduction of available consular services in each country, though core services will likely be maintained while diplomatic missions remain open.

Heightened Security and General Disruptions
Several countries sharing borders with Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have implemented heightened security. Moldova, Slovakia, and Lithuania have enacted states of emergency. Moldova, Slovakia, Hungary, and Poland are all keeping their respective borders with Ukraine open, with heightened security in place, and are receiving refugees.

Ukraine has closed its border checkpoints with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova to foreign nationals; however, Ukrainian citizens are permitted to return.

Authorities in Moldova have increased security nationwide after a series of explosions that occurred in the breakaway Transnistria region April 25-26. Separatist officials in Transnistria, on the other hand, have increased the enclave's terror threat level to "red" for 15 days and will establish checkpoints at city access points.

Sanctions
Sanctions imposed by the European Council and various other nations against Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine remain in place. These mostly target the country's banking and finance sector, international travel capabilities, and specific Russian companies and citizens.

Sanctions and countersanctions could limit the ability of some foreign nationals to operate in Russia and Belarus and of Russian and Belarusian nationals to operate in Europe. However, foreign nationals seeking to leave Russia or Belarus, or Russians and Belarusians seeking to leave European nations, are unlikely to face administrative obstacles. In addition, despite exceptions for essential goods, the banning of Russian road and maritime transport services from accessing EU roads and ports could result in a reduction in the availability of certain goods in Europe.

Aside from governmental sanctions, over 600 companies have either suspended or terminated their Russian operations. PayPal has halted services in Russia, while electronic payment companies Visa, Mastercard, and American Express have suspended operations in the country. American Express has also suspended all operations in Belarus. Western Union has suspended its operations in Russia and Belarus.

Generalized public fear over the potential impact of strong economic sanctions could prompt shortages of cash at ATMs as citizens attempt to withdraw large quantities of funds and shortages of essential goods due to panic buying. Some shortages have been reported in Russia.

Russian authorities have imposed countermeasures, including prohibiting Russian citizens from exiting the country with more than USD 10,000 in foreign currency and capital controls preventing foreign companies from selling Russian assets. Additionally, the sale of foreign currency is banned until Sept. 9. Russian nationals with existing foreign currency accounts may only withdraw up to USD 10,000, in USD only, until Sept. 9. Russian authorities have also banned the export of over 200 products, including telecommunications, agricultural, electrical, and technological equipment.

Maritime Disruptions
Authorities of several governments have issued advisories to mariners concerning the ongoing danger posed to maritime navigation by drifting sea mines, primarily in the Northwest, West, and Southwest sectors of the Black Sea. Such mines have been discovered in the coastal waters of Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria. Some nations have warned their merchant fleets to avoid the area due to the threat. Ukraine and Russia have accused each other of being responsible for the hazard posed by drifting mines since the start of the conflict.

Civilian vessels cannot operate in the northern Black Sea or Sea of Azov, both important waterways for the global supply of grain, iron, and oil. Several civilian vessels have been damaged in the region, including two vessels sunk, and Russian naval forces have allegedly detained at least three others. There is also a significant buildup of cargo vessels at the Kerch Strait, with several other vessels remaining stuck in Ukrainian ports.

Russian vessels and Russian-operated ships are banned from accessing EU and US ports. Several other governments, including the UK, have also banned Russian-connected ships from their seaports; various authorities have also seized Russian-owned vessels.

Anti-Western Sentiment
Heightened anti-Western sentiment is possible in Russia and Belarus in reaction to the international response to the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine. While there is currently no increased direct security threat to Western or other foreign nationals in Russia or Belarus, isolated incidents of low-level harassment are possible. A potential rise in anti-Western sentiment could also result in increased scrutiny, harassment, or coercion of foreign nationals by border guards, police, and other officials.

Advice

Confirm flight status with carriers; do not check out of accommodations until onward travel is confirmed. Avoid nonessential travel to affected border regions; defer travel to Ukraine. Exercise heightened vigilance at public gathering places in major urban areas. Heed authorities' instructions; remain calm and cooperative if questioned by law enforcement officers. Carry proper identification, including a passport with a current Russian or Belarusian visa if one is required. Prepare for disruptions to card payments in Russia. Ensure alternative payment methods are available. Refrain from discussing the ongoing conflict in Ukraine or other politically sensitive topics, including on social media services.

Resources

European Union Aviation Safety Agency
French Ministry for Europe and Foreign Affairs
Russian Federal Service for Supervision of Communications, Information Technology and Mass Media (Russian)
UK Travel Advice Russia
US Embassy in Russia