Ukraine: No major changes in tactical situation as of April 18 despite increased Russian air and missile strikes, including strike on Lviv /update 73

Event

Despite a recent increase in Russian air and missile strikes, no significant changes in the tactical situation on the ground in Ukraine have been reported as of April 18. Russian forces struck several targets in Lviv April 18 killing at least seven people and injuring 11, including several civilians; this is the first instance of civilian casualties in Lviv since the start of the invasion.

Ukrainian forces have pushed east from Kharkiv and Chuhuiv towards the Russian border and Kupyansk. Ukrainian troops have reportedly taken the towns of Bairak and Lebyazhe, and fighting is ongoing in the towns of Pechenihy, Kochetok, and Kutuzivka.

Ukrainian authorities did not open any humanitarian corridors April 17-18, indicating that Russian troops hadn't agreed to a ceasefire proposal along several evacuation routes.

Russian ground units continue to reinforce their positions in the eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, although troops redeployed from northern Ukraine have now reportedly joined the fight in the region. In Luhansk, Russian troops continued shelling Severodonetsk, Lysychansk, and Popasna and launched several small-scale attacks. Russian troops have reportedly taken control of the town of Kreminna. In Donetsk, intense shelling of Avdiivka has continued, possibly in advance of a renewed assault on the town. Nonetheless, there have been no major ground offensives in Donbas and Russian advances remain minimal. Russian forces also continue to reinforce their positions around Severodonetsk and amass troops near Izyum where heavy fighting continues.

Heavy fighting is continuing in the strategic port city of Mariupol. Russian troops have reportedly taken control of the entire port area. The Ukrainian military presence in the city has reportedly dwindled to pockets of resistance around the Azovstahl steelworks. Russia claimed on April 16 that Mariupol had been cleared of Ukrainian military units; however, fighting persists. The city will likely fall in the coming days.

Heavy shelling and missile strikes were reported in Kharkiv early April 18, killing at least two people. Russian forces have also struck targets in the Kyiv area, near Mykolaiv, near Poltava, and outside of the western city of Lviv over the past few days, likely in retaliation for the April 14 sinking of the Black Sea Fleet's flagship, the missile cruiser, Moskva.

Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in the Kherson area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term. Russian forces are continuing their offensive on Kharkiv.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostnayets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is also in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. Recent troop withdrawals and redeployments represent a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)