Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 23 /update 78

Event

Russian forces have continued their offensive in eastern Ukraine as of April 23 after military officials confirmed their intent to gain full control of the eastern and southern parts of the country April 22. As part of their eastern assault, Russian troops are reportedly seeking to converge around Slovyansk to cut off Ukrainian forces in the area; accordingly, Russian forces are focusing on moving southward from Izyum, westward from Luhansk, and northward from Donetsk. While heavy fighting has been reported in this and other areas along the line of contact in Ukraine's Donbas region, Russian troops have made little territorial progress over the past day amid Ukrainian resistance. Hence, Russian forces are likely to increase the scale of their attacks along the Izyum-Luhansk-Donetsk arc over the short term. For their part, Ukrainian troops have claimed to have retaken control of several towns in northern Kharkiv Region in recent days after pushing back Russian forces along the border. Ukrainian forces are likely to seek further eastward advances in the region amid their recently reported success.

Russia is continuing to launch air and missile strikes against several targets across Ukraine with increasing frequency. Notably, a Russian missile attack on the city of Odesa killed at least eight people April 23. The strikes reportedly impacted two residential buildings and a military facility. Russian shelling has also reportedly targeted residential areas in Slovyansk and Kharkiv; Russian forces have partially blockaded the latter. Additionally, shelling and intense fighting has been reported along the line of contact, particularly around Rubizhne and Popasna in Luhansk Region; both cities remained outside of Russian control as of April 23. In Donetsk Region, Russian forces have continued to attack Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka, Horlivka, Marinka, and Vuhledar areas but have not made significant territorial progress.

Ukrainian officials claimed April 23 that Russian forces had carried out renewed airstrikes on the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol and attempted to storm the facility, which has been the last remaining holdout of Ukrainian defenders in the besieged city. If confirmed, the move would mark a reversal in tactics ordered just two days earlier by Russian President Vladimir Putin; Moscow had previously declared victory in Mariupol and ordered that troops block off the facility to starve out the remaining Ukrainian defenders and force their surrender rather than engage in a costly clearing operation. Ukrainian authorities have estimated that around 2,000 Ukrainian troops remain dug in at the Azovstal facility and claim that they have recently attempted to stage counterattacks against Russian forces; in addition, more than 1,000 civilians remain holed up in the plant.

Ukrainian authorities have announced new curfew measures ahead of Orthodox Easter, observed April 24. Officials have imposed a 19:00-05:00 curfew in effect overnight April 23-24 in regions that have experienced active fighting, including Donetsk, Kharkiv, Kherson, Luhansk, Mykolaiv, and Zaporizhzhia regions, as well as a 23:00-05:00 overnight curfew in the rest of the country.

Russia continues to amass troops around Izyum in Kharkiv Region, with up to 25 Battalion Tactical Groups deployed as of April 23. Russian troops in Izyum have been probing southward and eastward toward Slovyansk, likely aiming to surround Ukrainian defenders in Luhansk Region; the scale of the offensive along this axis is likely to increase in the coming days.

In Kherson Region, Russian forces have continued to shell and launch unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions. However, intense fighting continues to be reported around Oleksandrivka. Russian attacks may be intended to divert Ukrainian attention away from advancing on Kherson while the Russians there entrench. Russian forces appear to remain mainly on the defensive in the Kherson area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25; the directive was originally slated to expire April 25.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames; these timings have been adjusted for Orthodox Easter. Typically, outside of the abovementioned curfew measures announced ahead of the Orthodox Easter holiday, a curfew is in place in the Kyiv Region 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew has been in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew generally runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew has been in effect 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine represents a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements. As a result, it is not certain whether this renewed offensive will result in rapid, significant territorial gains.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)