Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 24 /update 79

Event

Russian forces continued their apparent preparations for large-scale ground offensives in eastern Ukraine as of April 24 after Russian military officials recently confirmed their intent to gain full control of the eastern and southern parts of the country. Russia has continued to integrate forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the country while launching missile attacks, airstrikes, artillery barrages, and small-scale ground assaults in Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia regions to test Ukrainian defenses. Moscow will likely increase the scale of its ground offensive operations over the coming days; however, the precise pace at which Russian forces will launch those offensives, as well as their planned size, remains unclear. Russian forces will also likely continue to carry out shelling and small-scale attacks to pin Ukrainian defenders around Izyum, Severodonetsk, and Avdiivka until Moscow is prepared to launch a major ground offensive along one of these axes. For their part, Ukrainian forces are likely to continue to conduct counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv. Ukrainian partisan activity has also reportedly been increasing in the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

As part of their eastern assault, Russian troops concentrated near Izyum have continued to launch probing attacks southward but have gained little territory. However, Ukrainian officials have claimed that Russian forces have captured Lozova, located west of Izyum; nonetheless, Ukrainian forces were continuing to fight in the area as of April 23. If confirmed, the Russian capture of the town would likely impede Ukrainian efforts to defend positions in the Donbas region, as the town is a strategically important location on a major rail route for the transport of reinforcements and supplies from western Ukraine.

Elsewhere in Kharkiv Region, Russian forces have continued to shell Kharkiv city from their positions to the northeast. Reinforcements have reportedly arrived in the Kharkiv area to augment existing Russian positions. Russian officials have also claimed that their forces targeted several arms depots with rockets and artillery munitions in Barvinkove, Nova Dmytrivka, Ivanivka, Husarivka, and Velyka Komyshuvakha. Ukrainian forces have staged counterattacks in the region, reportedly capturing towns north of Kharkiv along the T2117 highway.

In Luhansk Region, Russian forces have incessantly shelled and engaged Ukrainian forces around Popasna and Rubizhne, and have reportedly escalated attacks in the direction of Severodonetsk. Luhansk regional officials claimed that at least eight people were killed in shelling April 23, with an unspecified number of others killed April 24. Ukrainian authorities have intimated that Russian forces operating around Popasna and Rubizhne may attempt to assault and encircle the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area instead of pursuing a more comprehensive envelopment of Ukrainian fighters throughout the Donbas region.

In Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions, Ukrainian defenders have reportedly repelled Russian attacks on the towns of Zelene Pole, Temyrivka, and Malynivka. Russian forces have notably continued to conduct airstrikes and artillery bombardments on Mariupol's Azovstal steel plant, the last remaining holdout of Ukrainian forces in the besieged city; Ukrainian forces added that Russian troops attempted to storm the facility April 24. Russian forces are likely to continue to bombard the Azovstal plant over the coming days. The renewed attacks on the facility mark a reversal in tactics ordered just days earlier by Russian President Vladimir Putin; Moscow had previously declared victory in Mariupol and instructed troops to block off the plant rather than engage in a costly clearing operation.

In Kherson Region, Russian forces have continued to shell and launch unsuccessful attacks on Ukrainian positions in recent days. However, intense fighting has recently been reported around Oleksandrivka. Russian attacks may be intended to divert Ukrainian attention away from advancing on Kherson while the Russians there entrench. Russian forces appear to remain mainly on the defensive in the Kherson area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25; the directive was originally slated to expire April 25.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames; while curfew measures were adjusted for the night of April 23-24 in observance of Orthodox Easter, they have largely reverted back to their previously enforced timings. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine represents a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements. As a result, it is not certain whether this renewed offensive will result in rapid, significant territorial gains.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)