Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 29 /update 84

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continued April 29, with intense shelling and major ground assaults reported in the eastern regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Explosions were notably reported in Kyiv late April 28; local authorities indicated that Russian projectiles struck the Shevchenkivskyi District twice, killing one journalist and injuring multiple civilians. Multiple missiles also reportedly hit infrastructure sites in the vicinity of Fastiv in the Kyiv Region.

The most intense fighting has taken place in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions, including heavy shelling along the line of contact. Russia continues to amass troops around Izyum and has reportedly sent General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff, to direct operations in the area, indicating the importance of this particular offensive. Troops are advancing from Izyum in three directions: southeastward toward Slovyansk, southwestward toward Barvinkove, and directly westward, but they have gained little additional territory in the previous 24 hours. Elsewhere in this area, Russia has launched ground attacks on Rubizhne, Marinka, and several other settlements, which continue to be repelled by Ukrainian defenders.

In northern Kharkiv region, Ukraine claims to have retaken control of Kutuzivka and Ruska Lozova in counterattacks April 28-29. Russia continues to shell Ukrainian positions in the city itself in addition to Zolochiv, Prudianka, and Chuhuiv.

Russian ground attacks continue in Mariupol, as Russian and Russian proxy forces continue to clash with Ukrainian defenders in residential areas to the north and east of the Azovstal Steel Plant. A successful assault on Azovstal appears unlikely at this stage, though artillery strikes on the facility have continued.

In southern Ukraine, Russian forces reportedly remain concentrated near Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Region, from where they have conducted limited attacks on towns to the north. Ukrainian military officials claim to have destroyed a railway bridge in Yakymivka, near Melitopol, which would disrupt rail resupply of Mariupol and offensives north in Zaporizhzhia Region. Russian troops have continued to shell Ukrainian positions in the Kherson Region in recent days. Russian forces have also reportedly started to stage attacks in the direction of Tavriyske and Nova Zorya, possibly capturing the outskirts of Tavriyske.

Russian occupying forces reportedly plan to start to transition areas of the Kherson Region that are under their control to the use of rubles from May 1. Officials have indicated that the transition period will take up to four months. Separatist officials in the Donetsk Region state they will postpone the planned May 9 Victory Day celebrations until they control the entire region.

A recent series of explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria since April 25 has raised concerns that Russia may be seeking to destabilize the region to provide a pretext for a Russian intervention that could ultimately be used to open a new front in southwestern Ukraine. While this remains unlikely in the near future, Russia did damage a bridge near the town of Zatoka, west of Odesa, in missile strikes April 26; the destruction of this bridge would severely hamper Ukrainian forces' ability to reinforce the Budjak area, directly south of Moldova.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. Authorities in Odesa are implementing an extended curfew from 22:00 May 1-05:00 May 3. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased Russian bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of men and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move is almost certainly imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the deployment of General Gerasmiv to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents are likely to continue in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the difficulty Russia would face in reinforcing or supplying them logistically, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this direction in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)