Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of April 30 /update 85

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continued April 30, with intense Russian shelling and ground assaults reported in the eastern regions of Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk. Ukrainian authorities have claimed that Russian forces have intensified their attacks along the Izyum-Luhansk-Donetsk arc; however, Russian troops have made little territorial progress over the past day due, at least in part, to stiff Ukrainian defense. A renewed Russian push along this front is nonetheless possible over the short term.

Cross-border attacks also targeted sites in Russia April 30. Ukrainian shelling reportedly hit the village of Zhecha in Bryansk Oblast, damaging an oil terminal but resulting in no casualties. Additionally, shelling from Ukraine reportedly targeted the Krupets checkpoint in Kursk Oblast; officials claimed the attack caused no damage or casualties.

Despite their apparent lack of significant tactical advances over the past day, Russian forces continue to carry out attacks in several Ukrainian regions. Notably, Russian forces launched a missile strike on Odesa International Airport (ODS) April 30, damaging the runway; the Ukrainian military asserted that the damaged runway can no longer be used. Local officials instructed nearby residents to shelter in place amid reports of multiple explosions.

In the Kharkiv Region, Russian forces continue to shell Kharkiv city and Ukrainian-held towns around it. For their part, Ukrainian troops have launched successful counterattacks in the region in recent days, recapturing Ruska Lozova, Momotove, and Kutuzivka.

Moreover, Russian troops have advanced from Izyum in three directions in recent days: southeastward toward Slovyansk, southwestward toward Barvinkove, and directly westward. While they have engaged Ukrainian defenders in heavy clashes at nearby Brazkhivka, Dovhenke, and Velyka Komyshuvakha, they have made little territorial progress, with Ukrainian forces claiming to have inflicted heavy losses on the Russian troops in these areas and forcing their retreat. Nonetheless, Russian troops will likely be able to better resupply their offensive along the Izyum axis over the coming days after they recently erected an additional pontoon bridge across the Siverskyi Donets River.

In the Donetsk Region, Russian troops have captured the town of Yampil, west of Severodonetsk, and are reportedly attempting to capture the Lyman area. Russian strikes have also continued in the Mariupol area in recent days, with Russian forces continuing to focus their attacks on the Azovstal Steel Plant; however, a ceasefire had reportedly allowed for the evacuation of some civilians from the plant as of April 30. Additionally, Russia continues to shell multiple other areas, including Avdiivka. Separatist officials in the Donetsk Region have asserted that they will postpone the planned May 9 Victory Day celebrations until they control the entire region.

In the Luhansk Region, Russian forces continue to shell Popasna, among other locations. Ukrainian forces have claimed to have repelled Russian attacks on Orikhove.

In southern Ukraine, Russian forces reportedly remain concentrated near Polohy, Zaporizhzhia Region, from where they have conducted limited attacks on towns to the north. Russian troops have continued to shell Ukrainian positions in the Kherson Region in recent days while beginning to stage attacks in the direction of Tavriyske and Nova Zorya, possibly capturing the outskirts of Tavriyske.

Also, in the Kherson Region, a near-complete internet blackout had been reported as of April 30. Mobile service operators have indicated that the outage is the result of an intentional act, with unconfirmed reports claiming that Russia seeks to institute its own network in the region. Additionally, Russian occupying forces reportedly plan to start to transition parts of the Kherson Region under their control to the use of rubles from May 1. Officials have indicated that the transition period will take up to four months.

A recent series of explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria since April 25 has raised concerns that Russia may be seeking to destabilize the region to provide a pretext for a Russian intervention that could ultimately be used to open a new front in southwestern Ukraine. While this remains unlikely in the near future, Russia did damage a bridge near the town of Zatoka, west of Odesa, in missile strikes April 26; the destruction of this bridge would severely hamper Ukrainian forces' ability to reinforce the Budjak area, directly south of Moldova.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. Authorities in Odesa are implementing an extended curfew effective 22:00 May 1-05:00 May 3. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew ordinarily runs 21:00-05:00; however, the curfew will be in effect 17:00 May 1-05:00 May 2. In Sumy Region, the curfew is also in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased Russian bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of men and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the deployment of General Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents are likely to continue in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Russia would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this direction in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)