Ukraine: Russia launches renewed offensive on eastern Ukraine as of April 19 /update 74

Event

Russian forces launched a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine with the aim of securing control over the entirety of Ukraine's Donbas region. The operation reportedly began April 18 with an increase in attacks and shelling along large parts of the line of contact in the Kharkiv, Luhansk, and Donetsk regions. Intense fighting is reportedly focused in Luhansk and Donetsk regions, particularly in the towns of Popasna, Rubizhne, Marinka, and Avdiivka. Kreminna is reportedly under Russian control as of April 19. Ukrainian military officials have anticipated this offensive for several days as Russia has been steadily reinforcing troops in the east, including by withdrawing and redeploying troops previously engaged in fighting in northern Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces previously pushed east from Kharkiv and Chuhuiv towards the Russian border and Kupyansk, likely attempting to disrupt Russian lines of communication leading to Izyum. Ukrainian troops have reportedly taken the towns of Bazaliivka and Lebyazhe, and fighting is ongoing in several other locations. Ukrainian officials estimate around 25,000 Russian forces may be concentrated around Izyum with the goal of pushing toward Slovyansk to encircle Ukrainian troops defending against the Russian offensive in Luhansk and Donetsk. Intense fighting is likely to continue in this area in the coming days.

Russia increased air and missile strikes against several targets across Ukraine prior to the renewed offensive, particularly around the line of contact in the east and southeast including Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. Missile strikes in Lviv on April 18 killed at least seven people and injured 11 others, including several civilians; this was the first instance of civilian casualties in Lviv since the start of the invasion.

Heavy fighting continues in the strategic port city of Mariupol. Russian troops have reportedly taken control of the entire port area. The Ukrainian military presence in the city has reportedly dwindled to pockets of resistance around the Azovstahl steelworks. Russia claimed on April 16 that Mariupol had been cleared of Ukrainian military units; however, fighting persists. The city will likely fall in the coming days. Ukrainian officials report a renewed offensive toward Hulyaipole in Zaporizhzhia Region; it is possible this line of attack will be further reinforced following the fall of Mariupol to the south.

Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in the Kherson area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostnayets station is closed and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In the Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin has made a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. The renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine represents the shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Despite the shift and the recent appointment of General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov as the theater-level commander, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements. As a result, it is not certain whether this renewed offensive will result in rapid, significant territorial gains.

Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict. Moscow will probably only present concrete proposals when and if the Russian military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations are almost certainly complicating negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow; senior Ukrainian political leadership will be unlikely to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts responsibility for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)