Ukraine: Russian forces continue regrouping April 10 prior to refocusing military operations on eastern and southern Ukraine /update 65

Event

Russian forces are continuing to regroup and redeploy April 10 as part of their attempt to shift the focus of military operations to the Donbas in eastern Ukraine and securing a land corridor with Crimea in the southern part of the country. Over the past 24 hours, there have been reports of a 13 km (8 mile) long Russian military convoy heading south through the town of Velykyi Burluk, approximately 60 miles (95 km) east of Kharkiv; the images in the reports were reportedly taken April 8. These are likely to be troops previously withdrawn from northern Ukraine in a significant redeployment to fighting in the east, a process that could take at least a week.

Ukrainian authorities strongly advise citizens in Luhansk and Donetsk regions to evacuate in anticipation of a large offensive in the area once the Russian redeployment is complete. Rail evacuation services have resumed from Slovyansk, Donetsk Region, April 10 following shelling that damaged the line in Barvinkove, Kharkiv Region, April 8; trains are not departing from Kramatorsk after a missile attack on the station that killed over 50 civilians April 8.

Despite the general lull in Russian ground forces activity over the past 24 hours, clashes continue to take place. Russian forces continue to blockade and shell Kharkiv as of April 10 to prevent Ukrainians from redeploying to assist in fighting further east and have shelled Ukrainian positions in Chuhuiv to the southeast of the city. According to Ukrainian military sources, Russian troops are laying mines and improving defensive positions outside of Kharkiv. Russian forces remain in control of Izyum, from which they continue to conduct offensives south towards Slovyansk and Barvinkove though little progress has been made; the Russian convoy heading south through Velykyi Burluk is likely intended to reinforce operations in this area.

Ukrainian reinforcements reportedly joined fighting in Luhansk Region April 7, where a successful counteroffensive pushed Russian troops back from Kreminna. Fighting is ongoing in Popasna, Rubizhne, and Novotoshkivske. In Donetsk Region, Russian shelling and fighting is reported in Vuhledar, Marinke, and Avdiika; Russian forces claim to have captured Solodke. The battle for Mariupol is also continuing as of April 10 Russian forces claim to have captured the city center; Ukrainian forces reportedly attacked Russian forces stationed in the southern port but limited verifiable information regarding the fighting is available. Overall, Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russian forces over the coming weeks.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counteroffensive operations in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions; heavy fighting is reported both northeast and southeast of Kherson city. Ukraine claims to have retaken a number of towns north and west of Kherson in recent days including Osokorivka, Novovoznesenske, and Dobryanka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly moving in the direction of Kherson city from the direction of Oleksandrivka on the coast. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in this area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives towards Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Russian forces continue to conduct missile strikes on several locations. Officials in Dnipro claim the airport (DNK) was completely destroyed in strikes April 10, though the runway was badly damaged in previous attacks mid-March, and further strikes were reported in Zvonetske, Dnipro Region, and Stara Bohdanivka, Mykolaiv Region, April 9-10. Further shelling and strikes are likely against targets across the country.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, most recently April 10, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. Following the recapture of Kyiv and northern Ukraine, some residents may start to return; the EU and Italy have both announced their intention to resume diplomatic presence in Kyiv April 10, and other governments are likely to follow suit in the coming days and weeks.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. Authorities in Odesa have announced an extended curfew 21:00 April 9-06:00 April 11. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00, with some municipality level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew 22:00-06:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin appears to be making a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum the Russian forces have lost. Recent troop withdrawals and redeployments represent a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Moreover, the government in Moscow has recently appointed General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov, a veteran of Russia's military action in Syria and commander of the Southern Military District, to assume overall command of operations in Ukraine. While Dvornikov's presence as a theater-level commander will almost certainly result in Russian forces' becoming better coordinated, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership not to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)