Ukraine: Russian forces continue to refocus military operations on eastern Ukraine April 7 /update 62

Event

Russian forces are continuing to refocus their operations on the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine as of April 7. Russian troops reportedly completed their withdrawal from the Sumy Region late on April 6, though Ukrainian authorities allege some foreign troops remain in border regions; Ukrainian forces are sweeping the area. While there have been no significant Russian advances on the ground, Russia continues to redeploy forces withdrawn from elsewhere in Ukraine to the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. In particular, large concentrations of troops have recently been reported in Snizhkivka and Brazhkivka near Izyum in the Kharkiv Region. These units may be used to support an offensive towards Slovyansk and Kramatorsk or towards Barvinkove in the coming days. Such an offensive, if successful, would facilitate the reinforcement of separatist forces operating around Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region, as well as bolster prospects for encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

While the Russian military has made few advances over the past 24 hours, some clashes have taken place. In the Kharkiv Region, clashes were reported in Dovhenke, though the town reportedly remains under Ukrainian control. Separatist forces continued their assaults on the towns of Rubizhne, Kreminna, and Popasna without breaking through Ukrainian lines, though clashes have been reported in central Popasna. Heavy artillery shelling has been reported throughout both conflict areas in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Russian units also continued to shell the city of Kharkiv as of April 7, likely as part of an effort to keep Ukrainian forces pinned in place.

The battle for Mariupol is also continuing as of April 7. Ukrainian defenders have thus far prevented Russian forces from completely capturing the city, though limited verifiable information regarding the fighting is available. Overall, Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russian forces over the coming weeks. Fighting and shelling continue near Donetsk city, particularly around Avdiivka and Marinka but little territory has changed hands.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counteroffensive operations in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions. Ukraine claims to have liberated a number of towns north and west of Kherson in recent days including Osokorivka, Novovoznesenske, and Dobryanka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly moving in the direction of Kherson city from the direction of Oleksandrivka on the coast. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in this area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives towards Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. As Ukrainian forces take more territory in Kyiv, some residents may start to return.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 21:00-06:00, with some possible municipality level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin appears to be refocusing back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make gains in the southeastern part of Ukraine, albeit while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with defenders in Mariupol city center.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership not to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)