Ukraine: Russian forces continue to refocus military operations on eastern Ukraine April 8 /update 63

Event

Russian forces are continuing to refocus military operations on the Donbas in eastern Ukraine as of April 8. The governor of Sumy Region stated that the region was clear of Russian forces indicating a complete Russian withdrawal from northern Ukraine across the border to Russia and Belarus. It is likely that these forces will be redeployed to the fighting in eastern Ukraine; the process could take at least a week. Ukrainian authorities strongly advise citizens in Luhansk and Donbas regions to evacuate in anticipation of a large offensive in the area once this redeployment is complete. However, Russian attacks on rail infrastructure in eastern Ukraine April 8 are likely to hamper the evacuation efforts. Russian shelling in Barvinkove, Kharkiv Region, damaged the main rail line linking Slovyansk and western Ukraine, and a Russian missile struck the train station in Kramatorsk, Donetsk Region, likely damaging infrastructure and killing approximately 50 civilians.

While the Russian military has made few advances over the past 24 hours, clashes continue to take place. Russian forces continue to blockade and shell Kharkiv as of April 8 to prevent Ukrainians from redeploying to assist in fighting further east. Nonetheless, Ukrainian forces claim to have regained control over Malynivka, approximately 40 km (25 miles) southeast of Kharkiv. Russian forces continue to attempt offensives south of Izyum toward Slovyansk and Barvinkove with little progress. The likely goal of this offensive is to facilitate the reinforcement of separatist forces operating around Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region, as well as bolster prospects for encircling Ukrainian forces in the Donbas.

Ukrainian reinforcements reportedly joined fighting in Luhansk Region April 7, where a successful counteroffensive pushed Russian troops back from Kreminna. Fighting is ongoing in Popasna and Novotoshkivske. In Donestsk Region, heavy fighting is reported around Marinka and Vuhledar; Russian forces claim to have captured Solodke. The battle for Mariupol is also continuing as of April 8. Russian forces claim to have captured the city center with Ukraine retaining positions southwest of the city, though limited verifiable information regarding the fighting is available. Overall, Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russian forces over the coming weeks.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counteroffensive operations in the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions; heavy fighting is reported both northeast and southwest of the city. Ukraine claims to have liberated a number of towns north and west of Kherson in recent days including Osokorivka, Novovoznesenske, and Dobryanka. Ukrainian forces are reportedly moving in the direction of Kherson city from the direction of Oleksandrivka on the coast. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in this area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives towards Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Barvinkove and Kramatorsk will disrupt rail evacuation services from these areas. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. As Ukrainian forces take more territory in Kyiv, some residents may start to return.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place from 21:00-06:00, with some municipality level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00; in Zaporizhzhia the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin appears to be refocusing back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make gains in the southeastern part of Ukraine, albeit while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with defenders in Mariupol city center.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership not to agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)