Ukraine: Russian forces continue to regroup, redeploy April 12 as part of efforts to refocus military operations on east of country /update 67

Event

Russian forces largely continued to regroup and redeploy April 12 as part of their apparent attempt to shift the focus of military operations to the eastern Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, widely known as the Donbas. Redeployments and some reportedly fresh reinforcements are concentrated in positions south of Izyum in Kharkiv Region, ahead of a threatened major offensive in the area once the Russian redeployment is complete. Increased deployments of Russian troops and materiel have also been reported to the northern outskirts of the city of Kharkiv, where Russian forces continue to hold defensive positions and shell the city in a likely effort to prevent Ukrainians from redeploying to assist in fighting further east.

The heaviest fighting is concentrated in Luhansk Region, where Russian and separatist forces launched attacks on Ukrainian positions to the east of Severodonetsk, as well as on Rubizhne and Popasna, without making significant gains. Given the failure of Russian forces to capture Severodonetsk with frontal assaults, they may change tactics and attempt to encircle the city via advances from Rubizhne to the north and Popasna to the south; however, Russian forces are not currently in control of either of these locations.

Heavy clashes are also ongoing in the strategic port city of Mariupol, where Russian forces claim to have bisected Ukrainian defenders. Russian sources allege defenders are maintaining positions in the Azovstal metals plant in the east of the city and the Port of Mariupol, located southwest of the city center. Previous reports of a chemical weapons attack on Ukrainian forces in the Azovstal plant April 11 remain unconfirmed; however, three related injuries have been reported. If confirmed, the event would mark Russia's first use of chemical weapons in the war. Mariupol remains likely to fall to Russian forces over the coming days or weeks, as unconfirmed reports also claim that Ukrainian defenders in the city are running low on food and ammunition.

Intense clashes have also been reported in areas south of Izyum, where Russian redeployments and reinforcements are concentrated. Specifically, probing Russian assaults on the towns of Dovhenke and Dmytrivka were reported April 11-12; the attacks were likely designed to test and stretch Ukrainian defenses, rather than capture these locations, ahead of a major push for the area that is likely in the coming days. Ukrainian authorities have ordered the evacuation of Barvinkove and Lozova amid repeated missile and artillery bombardment and ahead of the looming offensive.

Russia has significantly stepped up artillery shelling, airstrikes, and missile attacks in recent days. Over 130 locations were struck in the past 24 hours. Some of the heaviest shelling was reported on the outskirts of Kharkiv city; at least eight people were killed and 19 others wounded in the overnight bombardment April 11-12. Elsewhere, a Ukrainian position was reportedly struck by a hypersonic Kinzhal missile near Chasiv Yar. Artillery bombardment of the Ivanivka and Vozdvyzhenka areas of Donetsk Region reportedly resulted in the loss of more than 60 Ukrainian troops and multiple armored vehicles. Ammunition storage depositories near Mykolaiv and Zvoztneve were also struck by missiles or rockets.

Ukrainian forces continue to conduct limited counteroffensive operations in Kherson and Mykolaiv regions; fighting is typically reported both northeast and southeast of Kherson city. However, few assaults and little other military activity have been reported in this area over the past 24 hours. Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in this area and have largely withdrawn to positions within Kherson city and along the eastern bank of the Dnieper River. Russian ground offensives toward Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

Following the recapture of Kyiv and northern Ukraine, some residents may start to return; the EU and Italy had announced their intention to reinstall a diplomatic presence in Kyiv April 10, and other governments are likely to follow suit in the coming days and weeks.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is also in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew 22:00-06:00. In Sumy Region, the curfew is in place 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

Faced with the failure of its campaign to take Kyiv, the Kremlin appears to be making a number of changes to its strategy in an effort to regain the momentum that Russian forces have lost. Recent troop withdrawals and redeployments represent a shift back to one of Russia's more immediate objectives of seizing the entirety of Luhansk and Donetsk regions, as well as securing a land bridge to Crimea. Moreover, the government in Moscow has recently appointed General of the Army Aleksandr Dvornikov, a veteran of Russia's military action in Syria and commander of the Southern Military District, to assume overall command of operations in Ukraine. While Dvornikov's presence as a theater-level commander will almost certainly result in Russian forces becoming better coordinated, it remains unclear whether the units withdrawn from northern Ukraine for redeployment eastward can be transformed into combat-effective elements.

Ukrainian officials have accused Russian troops of committing various atrocities against the civilian population in occupied territories. Such revelations might make negotiations between Kyiv and Moscow more difficult, as the public might pressure senior Ukrainian political leadership to not agree to any concessions until the Kremlin accepts the blame for any war crimes that Russian troops may have committed. On the Russian side, it is likely that officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any substantive de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)