Ukraine: Russian forces continuing to withdraw some troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy areas as of April 2 /update 56

Event

Russian forces are continuing to withdraw troops from the Kyiv, Chernihiv, and Sumy areas as of April 2 amid ongoing fighting in several parts of northern, eastern, and southern Ukraine. In the Kyiv Region, Ukrainian forces have reportedly recaptured several settlements north and west of Kyiv, including Bucha and Hostomel. They’ve also reportedly advanced from the west to capture Ivankiv.

In the Chernihiv area, Ukrainian forces have regained control of the Kyiv Chernihiv highway and several settlements and towns. Russian forces remain north of Chernihiv city. In Sumy, Russian forces have reportedly established a defensive position in the Buryn area.

In the east of the country, Russian forces have reportedly captured Izyum. In the southeast, fighting is ongoing in Rubizhne, Popasna, Marinka, Severodonetsk, Avdiivka, Krasnohorivka, Yasynivk, and Novoselivka Druha. Russian aligned forces appear to have captured Novobakhmutovka. Mariupol remains surrounded, with areas under Ukrainian control reportedly decreasing.

Russian forces appear to remain on the defensive in the south and are withdrawing to positions east of and along the Dnieper. Offensive operations towards Mykolayiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Kryvyi Rih are unlikely in the short term. Ukraine claims to have captured several areas, including Mala Shesternya, Novohryhorivka, Topolyne, Knyazivka, and Kochubeivka in the Kherson area.

Elsewhere, shelling and missile strikes continue to be reported against targets across the country. Russia claims to have destroyed fuel storage facilities at the Kremenchuk oil refinery. Air attacks have also taken place at military airbases in Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk. Further intense shelling and missile strikes are likely, including strikes on targets in western regions.

Protests denouncing the Russian offensive and the subsequent occupation continue. Most protests are reported in Kherson Region. Russian troops have used tear gas and opened fire on protesters on several occasions, highlighting the difficulty Russian forces may encounter when attempting to impose order in some cities under their occupation. Elsewhere, protests have occurred in Henichesk, Berdyansk, and Melitopol. Russian military forces reportedly fired on protesters in Enerhodar April 2.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, Zakarpattia, Zaporizhzhia, and Odesa. Clashes and artillery strikes periodically prompt the suspension of evacuations. Large crowds continue to be reported at stations offering evacuation services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed. As Ukrainian forces take more territory in Kyiv, some residents may start to return.

Nightly curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00; in Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 20:00-06:00. Zaporizhzhia has imposed a tighter curfew which will be in effect from 20:00 April 2 through 05:00 April 4. In Rivne, authorities have declared a curfew from 22:00-06:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. The most severe shortages and disruptions are consistently reported in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, and Mariupol, which have suffered heavy bombardments and repeated ground assaults in recent days. Similar situations are likely in other cities facing Russian ground offensives or heavy bombardments. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Ukraine's borders with Belarus, Russia, and the Transnistria region of Moldova are closed to foreign nationals; only Ukrainian citizens can enter from these areas. Ukraine's borders with Hungary, Moldova, Poland, and Slovakia remain open. Though congestion has eased since the early days of the conflict, delays may worsen depending on conflict developments elsewhere in the country.

Context

The conflict appears to be entering a protracted phase, and Russian troops are likely digging in defensively while they await resupply or reinforcement or otherwise regain the initiative they had during the early days of the conflict. Ukrainian counteroffensives, though limited, have reportedly been effective at pushing Russian forces out of some areas in recent days.

However, given that Russia is likely concentrating on the southeast to fulfill the stated aim of capturing the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, limited Ukrainian counteroffensives are unlikely to impact the course of the conflict significantly. Accordingly, offensive operations have increasingly focused on the Donbas. Though progress has slowed considerably from the initial phase of the war, Russian and Russia-backed forces continue to make slow but steady gains in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions while continuing to engage in heavy clashes with Ukrainian defenders in Mariupol city center.

While negotiations are ongoing, it is likely that Russian officials will only present concrete proposals once they feel the military position in southeastern Ukraine is relatively secure. Recent talks have failed to yield any concrete de-escalation of the conflict, though both Russian and Ukrainian positions are believed to have softened.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)