Iran: Additional demonstrations likely in major cities across Khuzestan Province through at least late May /update 1

Event

Demonstrations will likely persist across Khuzestan Province through at least May in response to the government's decision to cut bread subsidies. Actions will probably grow in scale and intensity unless officials reverse their decision. Road blockades and other disruptive protests will likely continue throughout major cities in the province. Prominent gathering sites include major public squares, city centers, and near government buildings. Security forces have reportedly used lived ammunition amid violent demonstrations May 12, wounding multiple protesters. Unconfirmed accounts also suggest the arrest of activists in several cities. Clashes have reportedly occurred in Andimeshk, Dezful, Izeh, Mahshar, and Susangerd since protests broke out May 6.

Transport disruptions are likely near any demonstrations that materialize over the coming days. Civil society and labor and political groups will probably call for associated strike actions. Authorities will likely remain deployed and may respond robustly, including the use of tear gas, water cannon, and baton charges, to any instances of civil unrest, especially if participants are overly disruptive or fail to heed orders to disperse. Additional clashes between security forces and activists are possible. Counterprotests and clashes between supporters and opponents of the government may also occur. In some cases, security personnel could continue to use live ammunition to disperse protesters. Officials have also shut down internet service in some areas of Khuzestan Province to prevent people from mobilizing; further disruptions to communication networks remain possible. Authorities may impose a province-wide curfew if protests persist.

Advice

Avoid all large gatherings, as well as areas where security forces have deployed, due to possible clashes. Plan for ground transport disruptions and allow extra time to reach destinations in major cities across Khuzestan Province, especially near likely protest locations, such as public squares, government buildings, and gas stations. Heed the instructions of security personnel. If violence break out nearby, leave the area immediately and seek shelter in a secure, nongovernment building.