Mexico: Hurricane Agatha tracking northeast in Pacific Ocean late May 29 /update 2

Event

Hurricane Agatha is tracking northeast in the Pacific Ocean off the southern coast of Mexico late May 29. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 225 km (140 miles) southwest of Puerto Angel, Mexico.

Forecast models indicate the system will strengthen into a Category 3 hurricane as it continues tracking northeastward before making landfall over southern Oaxaca State, Mexico, late May 30. After landfall, Agatha is forecast to weaken rapidly as it tracks north-northeastwards across Oaxaca and Veracruz states before dissipating over the eastern part of Veracruz State late May 31. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late May 29, Mexican authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Salina Cruz to Lagunas de Chacahua.

• Tropical Storm Warning: Salina Cruz eastward to Boca de Pijijiapan as well as Lagunas de Chacahua westward to Punta Maldonado.

• Hurricane Watch: Salina Cruz eastward to Barra De Tonala.

Heavy rainfall is likely over portions of southern Mexico through May 31. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 25-41 cm (10-16 inches) over Oaxaca State, 13-25 cm (5-10 inches) over Chiapas State, 5-15 cm (2-6 inches) over eastern Guerrero State, and 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) over Veracruz and Tabasco states. The storm surge is forecast to result in dangerous coastal flooding near and to the east of where Agatha makes landfall. The surge will likely be accompanied by large and destructive waves near the coast. Authorities will likely issue new warnings or update existing advisories throughout the system's progression in the coming days.

Authorities in Oaxaca State have set up 200 evacuation shelters with the capacity to house 26,000 people in the coastal area of the state. In the Huatulco Region, Oaxaca State, local schools as well as all beaches and bays are closed. Oaxaca and Guerrero ports are also closed.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
Mexican Meteorological Service (Spanish)