Sri Lanka: Protests likely to continue following appointment of new prime minister May 12 /update 16

Event

Protests are likely to continue following the appointment of United National Party (UNP) leader Ranil Wickremesinghe as the new prime minister May 12. The nationwide curfew will expire 06:00 May 13; however, authorities will reimpose the curfew 14:00 May 13-06:00 May 14. Officials have extended the nationwide curfew multiple times and will likely extend it again if civil unrest persists.

Civil Unrest
Protests denouncing the government's handling of an ongoing economic crisis are occurring across Sri Lanka as of late May 12. Demonstrations started in late March and are likely to continue indefinitely. A state of public emergency and a curfew is active nationwide. Political uncertainty continues, with Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa announcing his resignation May 9 following clashes outside his residence.

Demonstrations have occurred in several cities, including Colombo, Galle, and Kandy since late March. Activists typically hold sit-ins or marches at or near fuel stations, hospitals, government buildings, politicians' residences, public squares, railway stations, and along major roadways connecting cities. Trade unions have intermittently held nationwide strikes. Violence involving lethal weapons has occurred during demonstrations; significant clashes occurred between pro- and anti-government supporters May 9, mainly in Colombo, resulting in eight deaths and over 200 injuries. The largest indefinite protest is underway at Colombo's Galle Face Green, despite official orders to vacate the premises. Further demonstrations by civil, political, and labor groups over economic issues are certain in the coming weeks. However, curfews and expanded police powers to forcibly disperse public gatherings will likely affect protest participation.

Security Measures
A nationwide curfew is in effect through 06:00 May 13, though authorities will reimpose the curfew 14:00 May 13. Under the state of emergency measures, officials may enforce additional curfews, deploy military forces to maintain public order, arrest and detain suspects for a prolonged time without trial, conduct searches and evictions of buildings, and impose limits on media, among others. Security personnel is also empowered to open fire at individuals deemed to harm public property, violate curfew orders, engage in illegal acts, or harm others. Authorities will almost certainly maintain a heightened security posture, mainly in Colombo, until protests abate. Localized transport disruptions and a heavy police presence are likely near any large gatherings that may materialize. Protests could turn violent quickly, though security forces are usually quick to resort to the use of force to disperse unruly gatherings. Businesses in areas experiencing violent protests and/or heightened security measures could close temporarily as a precaution. Power outages and fuel shortages will likely continue interrupting business operations in the medium term, potentially prompting further disruptions and protests.

Travel Advisories
Multiple countries including Australia, Canada, France, New Zealand, Singapore, and Saudi Arabia are advising against nonessential travel to Sri Lanka as of May 12 due to ongoing civil unrest and an indefinite state of public emergency. Several other nations such as the UK, and the US, are cautioning their citizens in Sri Lanka to avoid demonstrations and plan for shortages of essential items since early April. Other governments may adjust their travel risk assessments in the coming days.

Context

Various groups have held protests in Sri Lanka in recent weeks to denounce worsening economic conditions and the government's response to the situation. A lack of foreign reserves to service external payments has caused an economic crisis, with worsening shortages of essential goods such as food, fuel, and medications. Fuel shortages and power outages have, in turn, disrupted water supply, freight and passenger transport, and internet services. The country suspended foreign debt payments April 12, with USD-4 billion payments due in 2022. The government is in talks to obtain financial assistance from the IMF, marking the 17th time the nation has sought a bailout from the global lender since its independence.

The Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party led by former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa has lost its majority in the parliament as several coalition partners and lawmakers withdrew support. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has refused to resign, while no other party or coalition has staked a claim to form an alternative government in the 225-seat assembly. A fresh cabinet was appointed April 18, after cabinet ministers resigned April 3. Former Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was initially the only cabinet member to stay on but later announced his resignation May 9. Political uncertainty prevails as President Rajapaksa is negotiating to form an interim all-party government amid demands by the opposition for constitutional amendments to curtail presidential powers. The Sri Lankan Parliament plans to reconvene May 17 to discuss a possible vote of no-confidence for President Rajapaksa.

Advice

Confirm business and medical appointments, deliveries, road status, and transport reservations in advance. Adhere to all instructions issued by local authorities. Abide by any curfew orders. Avoid all protests due to the potential violence. Do not attempt to cross protester roadblocks; wait for the police to clear them before proceeding. If clashes break out, leave the area immediately and take shelter in a secure, nongovernmental building. Allow additional travel time in Colombo and other urban centers through at least May. Plan for long queues to obtain essential items; ensure contingency plans account for the continued access to essential goods and services. Maintain contact with your diplomatic representation.