Ukraine: Kyiv's counteroffensive continues to advance north of Kharkiv as of May 11 /update 96

Event

Ukrainian forces continue to make progress in their counteroffensive north of Kharkiv as of May 11, pushing Russian forces back toward the border. Fighting continues along the entire Donbas front line, with the most intense clashes reported around Severodonetsk; however, Russia has made limited progress over the past day.

On the Kharkiv axis, Ukrainian forces are advancing north from Staryi Saltiv along the Siversky Donets River. They have reportedly liberated the towns of Bairak, Zamulivka, Verkhnii Saltiv, and Rubizhne and may have advanced to within 10 km (6 miles) of the border in this area. For their part, Russian troops have been destroying bridges as they retreat, suggesting their withdrawal is deliberate and that they may have no plans to retake that territory over the near term. The Ukrainian General Staff has reported that Russian forces have accumulated 19 battalion tactical groups in Belgorod Oblast and are redeploying troops from Izyum northward in a likely effort to stop Ukrainian counterattacks from reaching the Russian border. The Ukrainian counteroffensive could threaten the major line of communication connecting Belgorod and Izyum.

Russia has not launched significant attacks south of Izyum over the past day. However, intense fighting has been reported east of Izyum around Shandryholove and Lyman in northern Donetsk Region, as well as around Oleksandrivka. Russia also launched assaults on several towns surrounding Severodonetsk May 10-11, including Rubizhne, Vojevodivka, Toshkivka, and Bilohorivka, with the likely aim of surrounding Severodonetsk and cutting off support to Ukrainian defenders in the city. Ukrainian forces have resisted the attacks in most locations, but Russian officials claim they have continued through Popasna and control territory as far as the Luhansk-Donetsk regional administrative border. Russian forces on this axis will likely attempt to take Bakhmut next.

In southern Donetsk, clashes have focused on Avdiivka and Kamyanka; Ukrainian defenders have reportedly repelled all Russian attacks. In Mariupol, Ukrainian authorities estimate that more than 1,000 Ukrainian fighters remain in the Azovstal Steel Plant; Russian forces have now reportedly stepped up assaults and airstrikes on the facility in an ongoing attempt to clear the last Ukrainian defenders.

While clashes have been reported along the line of contact at the border of Kherson Region, Russian forces have conducted no new significant offensive operations in the region in recent days, opting instead to conduct reconnaissance operations and regroup their front lines. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed Russian offensive toward Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih from Kherson in the coming days.

Russian forces have stepped up missile attacks and airstrikes against targets, including rail infrastructure and the electricity grid, in central and western Ukraine in recent days in a likely effort to follow through on threats to prevent foreign weapon shipments from reaching the battlefield.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Region, an extended curfew will be in effect 18:00 May 13-06:00 May 16. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's campaign in eastern Ukraine has become sluggish at best over the past week, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Izyum sectors appears to be gaining momentum. In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Moscow has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine and such a move may be imminent. Still, Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex theater-level maneuvers that they have generally been believed to possess.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service