Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of May 3 /update 88

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continued May 3 with sustained shelling of Ukrainian-held settlements on the frontline but with few ground assaults amid regrouping and redeployment in several areas along the line of contact. Ukrainian military officials anticipate renewed offensives in the east around Severodonetsk and south from Kherson Region in the coming days and have been preparing defenses accordingly.

Russia did not launch any major attacks from Izyum in the previous 24 hours. Ukraine did not gain any further territory amid counterattacks in the northern Kharkiv region but fighting is reportedly ongoing around Staryi Saltiv as Ukraine seeks to gain control of the town. Russia launched few ground assaults on the frontline between Izyum and Rubizhne where it had previously been making steady progress; the only confirmed major assault, on Yampil, was repelled by Ukrainian forces. Ukraine claims Russia is regrouping and redeploying troops in this area ahead of a renewed offensive towards Lyman and Slovyansk in the coming days. Similarly, Russia reduced the scale of offensives on Rubizhne and Popasna May 2 while redeploying additional troops to the area, likely ahead of renewed efforts to take those towns.

In the Donetsk Region, shelling continues to be reported along the line from Velyka Novosilka and Vremivka to Ukrainian lines at Novomykhailivka and Marinka. In Mariupol, the evacuation of civilians was delayed May 3 as Russian troops continue to launch artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant; reports also suggest Russia attempted to storm the facility May 3. In the Zaporizhzhia Region, artillery units have redeployed to Tokmak, likely to assist in future assaults on Orikhiv and Huliaipole. Zelene Pole, located in Donetsk Region on the Zaporizhzhia administrative border, is also regularly subjected to Russian shelling.

In the Kherson Region, no major attacks were reported May 2-3 but Russia continues to shell Ukrainian-held settlements near the line of contact. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed offensive towards Mykolaiv or Kyrvi Rih from Kherson in the coming days. A near-complete internet blackout was reported in Kherson Region April 30. While regional service providers had partially restored access on May 1, network connectivity has reportedly been rerouted through Russian internet infrastructure. Additionally, Russian occupation forces reportedly began to transition parts of the Kherson Region under their control to the use of rubles May 1. Officials have indicated that the transition period will take up to four months.

A recent series of explosions in neighboring Moldova's separatist region of Transnistria since April 25 has raised concerns that Russia may be seeking to destabilize the region to provide a pretext for a Russian intervention that could ultimately be used to open a new front in southwestern Ukraine. While such a move remains unlikely in the near future, the Kremlin's forces did damage a bridge near the town of Zatoka, west of Odesa, in missile strikes April 26 and May 2; the destruction of this bridge would severely hamper the Ukrainian military's ability to reinforce the Budjak area directly south of Moldova.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of personnel and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the recent deployment of General Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents could occur in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Moscow would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this sector in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)