Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in east of country as of May 4 /update 89

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine is continuing May 4, with Moscow's main tactical objective still appearing to be to encircle the Ukrainian defenders in the Luhansk region - particularly those east of the Izyum-Slovyansk highway. A Ukrainian counterattack has reportedly advanced to the Siversky Donets river around 40 km (25 miles) east of Kharkiv. Staryi Saltiv is now under Ukrainian control, with Russian forces retreating northwards up the highway toward Volchansk. The objective of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is probably to threaten enemy lines of communication to Izyum. Russian forces continued their attacks south of Izyum in the Barvinkove area but have made no substantial gains

In Luhansk, Russian forces advanced towards Shandrygolove and launched attacks around Rubizhne and Popasna; however, there has not been much movement along the line of contact despite heavy artillery fire. In Donetsk, Russian troops are still trying to take Velyka Novosilka after capturing Vremivka and Neskuchne.

Russian air and missile strikes have continued to target utilities and transport infrastructure in various parts of the country, including Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zakarpattia, Odesa, and Donetsk. Russian forces hit three electrical substations in Lviv late May 3, damaging the city’s electrical grid and disrupting the water supply.

Ukrainian military officials anticipate renewed offensives in the east around Severodonetsk and south of Kherson Region in the coming days and have been preparing defenses accordingly.

In Mariupol, Russian troops continue to launch artillery strikes on the Azovstal Steel Plant; reports also suggest Russian forces attempted to storm the facility May 3. In the Zaporizhzhia Region, artillery units have redeployed to Tokmak, likely to assist in future assaults on Orikhiv and Huliaipole. Zelene Pole, located in Donetsk Region on the Zaporizhzhia administrative border, is also regularly subjected to Russian shelling.

In the Kherson Region, no major attacks were reported in the last 72 hours but Russia continues to shell Ukrainian-held settlements near the line of contact. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed offensive towards Mykolaiv or Kyrvi Rih from Kherson in the coming days. A near-complete internet blackout was reported in Kherson Region April 30. While regional service providers had partially restored access on May 1, network connectivity has reportedly been rerouted through Russian internet infrastructure. Additionally, Russian occupation forces reportedly began to transition parts of the Kherson Region under their control to the use of rubles May 1. Officials have indicated that the transition period will take up to four months.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) continues to operate evacuation trains from Kyiv and other areas, including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kryvyi Rih, and Zaporizhzhia regions. Trostyanets station is closed, and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Intercity and regional rail services are available intermittently; rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Damage to rail infrastructure at Kramatorsk will disrupt evacuation services from this area. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government in Kyiv has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions during various time frames. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in place 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in effect 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice, depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of personnel and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the recent deployment of General Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents could occur in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Moscow would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this sector in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ (Facebook) (Ukrainian)
Listing of Available Trains by City (Ukrainian)
State Border Guard Service (Facebook) (Ukrainian)