Ukraine: Russia continues offensive in multiple areas of country as of May 6 /update 91

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine has continued in multiple areas of the country May 6. Ukrainian military officials announced on May 5 that they intend to transition to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum; they have already had some success at retaking settlements north and east of Kharkiv. Russian forces did not make any significant gains in the previous 24 hours. A Russian frigate, The Admiral Makarov, sailing in the Black Sea near Snake Island was reportedly damaged by Ukrainian missiles May 5.

The heaviest fighting continues to be reported near Izyum in the Kharkiv Region as well as in the Rubizhne and Popasna areas of the Luhansk Region. Russia continues to shell Ukrainian settlements across the front line and launched unsuccessful attacks on Severodonetsk and Popasna May 5; Ukrainian officials anticipate Russia will intensify attacks on these towns in the coming days. A number of Ukrainian troops are reportedly concentrated in Protopopivka, to the west of Izyum, from where they may attempt to approach the Russian-held town.

In the Donetsk Region, Russian forces continued intense shelling of Lyman and Yampil early May 5. Russian troops have also launched repeated ground assaults on Lyman in recent days; however, the settlement reportedly remains under Ukrainian control. In Mariupol, Russian forces reportedly entered the Azovstal Steel Plant May 4 in an ongoing attempt to clear Ukrainian defenders from the facility.

In the Kherson Region, no major ground attacks have been reported. Russia continues to shell Ukrainian-held settlements near the northern administrative border of the region. Ukrainian counteroffensives are reportedly ongoing north of Kherson city, near Snihurivka, though exact details remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed offensive toward Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih from Kherson in the coming days.

Russian forces have stepped up missile attacks and airstrikes against targets, ostensibly rail infrastructure, in central and western Ukraine in recent days in a likely effort to follow through on threats to prevent foreign weapon shipments from reaching the battlefield.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Trostyanets station has partially reopened and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; however, in Zaporizhzhia city, an extended curfew will be in effect 19:00 May 8-05:00 May 10. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, given that these redeployed forces reportedly suffered losses of personnel and equipment during offensives in northern Ukraine, it is uncertain whether their piecemeal introduction in the country's east will result in rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the recent deployment of General Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

Recent explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, are likely designed to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents could occur in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. However, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Moscow would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this sector in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service