Ukraine: Russian forces continue offensive operations as of May 18 /update 103

Event

Russia's offensive operations against Ukraine continue as of May 18. The operation is characterized by slow, limited progress as Moscow focuses on taking full control of the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Progress in the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv has also begun to slow amid increased Russian resistance.

The most intense clashes continue to take place around Lyman in the north of Donetsk Region and Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region. Around Lyman, Russian forces claim to have taken control of Drobysheve and Yarova. Russian forces have made no progress in attempts to encircle Severodonetsk from the north via Bilohorivka, but claim to have taken Toshkivka on the highway south of Severodonetsk; this is currently unconfirmed. Reports suggest Russian forces are expanding their footprint around Popasna by taking towns to the north, west, and south. From this position, Moscow can support offensives north towards Severodonetsk or launch assaults east toward Bakhmut and Ukrainian-held highways connecting the city to Severodonetsk and Slovyansk. Russia also continues to shell and stage sporadic ground assaults on settlements further south in the Donetsk Region.

Ukraine remains near the border north of Kharkiv following its recent counteroffensive but did not gain any significant additional territory May 17. This supports recent reports that Russian troops are digging in to resist further Ukrainian advances, likely to keep Ukraine out of artillery range of Belgorod and main routes supplying operations in Izyum. On the Izyum Axis, Russian forces are reportedly replenishing forces for renewed assaults towards Slovyansk; they have so far been continuously unable to advance past Ukrainian positions in Dovhenke.

The evacuation of the final Ukrainian soldiers from Mariupol continues May 18. At least 264 soldiers were confirmed to have been evacuated late May 16; Moscow claims around 1,000 soldiers have been evacuated as of May 18 but that the leaders of the resistance remain in the Azovstal Steel Plant. Most Ukrainian soldiers are being evacuated to Russian-held territory, where Ukrainian officials intend to conduct a prisoner swap; it is currently unclear whether Moscow will agree to this. Russia will now be able to redeploy troops and resources from the city to support the offensive in other sectors of the front.

Elsewhere, Russian forces continue to conduct missile strikes on targets throughout the country. Missile strikes were reported in the outskirts of Dnipro and in Odesa Region May 18. Military equipment and rail infrastructure in Starychi, Lviv Region, were damaged in a missile strike May 17, as was the Zatoka Bridge southwest of Odesa for the fifth time; Ukrainian officials report the bridge is not currently operational. A missile strike on a military facility in Desna, Chernihiv Region, approximately 60 km (37 miles) north of Kyiv, resulted in multiple casualties May 17. Russia continues to shell targets in the Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued risks of such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border; an attempted Russian incursion across the border near Serednya-Buda in the northern Sumy Region was repelled by Ukrainian forces May 17.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskyi Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service