Ukraine: Russian forces continue offensive operations as of May 22 /update 107

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine is continuing as of May 22. The majority of the fighting is taking place in eastern Ukraine as Moscow focuses on taking full control of the entirety of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, including a recent step-up in assaults around Severodonetsk. The offensive remains characterized by slow, limited gains in most areas with limited Russian successes around Popasna.

The main area of fighting continues to be in eastern Ukraine along an arc encompassing Izyum, Luhansk, and northern Donetsk region. Moscow continues to focus on capturing Severodonetsk; Russian forces reportedly destroyed one of two bridges between Lysychansk and Severodonetsk May 21 which would hinder available support for Ukrainian forces in the city. Fighting is reported in several towns north and west Popasna, with Russia claiming to have captured Lypove and Volodymyrivka. This remains unconfirmed but would be significant if true as it would place Russian forces within less than 4.5 km (2.8 miles) of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302), enabling them to threaten Ukrainian troops in Severodonetsk along a new axis and interdict enemy supplies to the area. Intense clashes are ongoing near Lyman, with Russian troops apparently attempting to link up with forces in Kharkiv Region. Russia continues to shell and stage sporadic ground assaults on settlements further south in Donetsk Region, particularly around Avdiivka though reports suggest this remains in Ukrainian control.

Ukrainian forces remain near the border with Russia north of Kharkiv following their recent counteroffensive but have not made any further significant territorial gains as of May 22. Russian troops are digging in to resist further Ukrainian advances and have launched limited counterattacks on Vesele, Zolochiv, Ternova, and Rubizhne to bolster their positions. Russian artillery continues to target the northern outskirts of Kharkiv city. On the Izyum axis, Ukrainian military sources report that Russian troops are attempting to erect a pontoon bridge over the Siverskiy Donets River near Yaremivka. There has also been some unspecified ground activity in Slovyansk sector.

The last of the Ukrainian defenders at Mariupol's Azovstal steelworks have reportedly surrendered as of May 21. Nevertheless, the fall of the Azovstal facility is unlikely to enable the Kremlin to divert large numbers of troops and resources to other sectors and make significant changes on the battlefield. Ten of Russia's battalion tactical groups (BTG) in Mariupol were deployed to locations elsewhere along the front some weeks ago, meaning that the surrender of the Ukrainian defenders frees up only two BTGs, or about 2,000 Russian soldiers, for redeployment.

Elsewhere, Russian forces continue to conduct missile strikes on targets throughout the country. Missile strikes were reported in Zhytomyr and Zaporizhzhia regions May 22. Russia also continues to shell targets in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued risks of such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border; an attempted Russian incursion across the border near Serednya-Buda in the northern Sumy Region was repelled by Ukrainian forces May 18.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through August 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, through at least May 29. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskyi Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service