Ukraine: Russian forces continue offensive operations as of May 26 /update 111

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine has continued May 26. The heaviest fighting has been centered on settlements in the Luhansk Region and in northern parts of the Donetsk Region, where Russian forces continue to make slow gains amid coordinated and uncoordinated Ukrainian troop withdrawals. Russian forces are closing in on Severodonetsk, which they are likely attempting to encircle; Russian and pro-Russia separatist forces are currently approaching the city from the north, east, and south. Clashes May 25-26 have focused on Ustynivka, approximately 15 km (9 miles) southeast of Severodonetsk; however, clashes have also taken place in the northern outskirts of the city, as well as in settlements to the east.

Around Popasna, a settlement approximately 35 km (22 miles) south of Severodonetsk, Russian forces are consolidating gains made to the north and west of the town as Ukrainian troops have withdrawn to more defensible positions in recent days. The Bakhmut-Lysychansk (T1302) highway and the Popasna-Lysychansk (T1303) highway remain likely Russian objectives, the capture of which would further the encirclement of defenders in the Severodonetsk area and effectively cut them off from the rest of Ukraine.

To the south of Popasna, Ukrainian withdrawals have reportedly been uncoordinated as troops have come under continued pressure from advancing Russian forces. Ukrainian forces have reportedly withdrawn to Vidrodzhennia. Further south in the Donetsk Region, Russian forces have conducted limited assaults as they have attempted to improve their tactical position around Avdiivka. Clashes have been reported in Kam'yanka, Pisky, and Krasnohorivka, as well as in Avdiivka; however, Ukrainian troops repulsed multiple attacks May 25.

Ukrainian forces remain near the border with Russia to the north of Kharkiv following their recent counteroffensive. Moscow has reportedly pulled troops from the offensive in the east to protect their main supply route through Vovchansk and halt the Ukrainian advance northward and eastward. Russian troops continue to launch limited counterattacks in the area; both Russia and Ukraine claim control over Ternova as of May 26. Russian artillery continues to target towns north of Kharkiv city but has not targeted the regional center itself over the past 48 hours.

Elsewhere, Russian forces continue to conduct heavy artillery strikes, missile strikes, and airstrikes on targets throughout the country. The Zaporizhzhia Region has been particularly affected in the past day, with airstrikes and rocket strikes targeting multiple settlements, including Komyshuvakha, Orikhiv, and Charivne. Russia also continues to shell targets in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued risks of such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, through at least May 29. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskiy Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to the front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect additional troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service