Ukraine: Russian forces continue offensive operations as of May 27 /update 112

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues as of May 27. The heaviest fighting has been centered on settlements in the Luhansk Region and in northern parts of the Donetsk Region, where Moscow's forces continue to make incremental gains amid a Ukrainian troop withdrawal; the offensive has further weakened Ukrainian positions around Severodonetsk and Popasna. Russian troops have reportedly occupied most of Lyman and have taken over two-thirds of the perimeter of Severodonetsk. The city itself has been heavily shelled in the past 72 hours; local authorities have stated that at least 60 percent of the residential buildings in the city have been destroyed and that more than 1,500 persons have been killed. Ukrainian troops are reportedly surrounded in the Hirske-Orikhove-Zolote complex south of Severodonetsk. The fall of this area would be significant as there are few easily defensible points en route to Lysychansk. Local authorities in Severodonetsk have started planning potential evacuation routes.

South of Izyum, Russian forces continue artillery bombardments against Ukrainian positions defending the road to Slovyansk, including in Dovhenke. The Russian army is likely looking to push on along the M03 highway and link up with troops attempting to move through Lyman and across the Siverskiy Donets River to attack Slovyansk. Heavy clashes have also been reported in the area around Popasna.

North of Kharkiv city, intense battles continue in the Ternova area and around Rubizhne. Preliminary reports suggest Ukrainian troops may have taken control of Ternova. Russian forces have reportedly halted their retreat and are mining roads in the border region to inhibit the northward movement of Ukrainian units. At least nine people were killed and 17 injured in Russian shelling of Kharkiv city May 27; this has been the first case of shelling against the city itself in two weeks.

Russian forces continue to conduct heavy artillery and missile attacks, as well as airstrikes on targets throughout the country. At least ten people were killed and 35 injured when a Russian missile hit a Ukrainian National Guard base in Dnipro. Russia also continues to shell targets in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued risks of such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, through at least May 29. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskiy Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to the front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect additional troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service