Ukraine: Russian forces making incremental gains in Severodonetsk as of May 31 /update 116

Event

Russian forces continue to conduct offensive actions in Ukraine as of May 31. Russian forces have reportedly entered the eastern city of Severodonetsk as of May 31 and intense street fighting is ongoing. The city has been the focus of Russian offensive activity in recent weeks as it would bring the last major urban center in the Luhansk Region under Russian control. Russian forces are reportedly in control of limited northeastern and southeastern areas of the city and are making incremental advances in both directions.

Intense clashes to prevent or at least stave off Russia's operational encirclement of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk continue around Toshkivka, which lies close to the Hirske-Lysychansk Highway, and up to Voronove. Ukrainian forces in Severodonetsk could be cut off from a primary retreat route through Lysychansk, if Russian forces extend their encirclement from the east and southeast. Fighting continues west of Popasna but Russian advances are reportedly stalled around towns approaching the Bakhmut-Lysychansk Highway, the main supply route for the defenders in Severodonetsk.

Ukrainian military officials previously confirmed Russia's capture of Lyman in Donetsk Region, approximately 20 km (12 miles) northeast of the Ukrainian-held city of Slovyansk. The fall of Lyman grants Russia access to strategically important rail and road links between Russian-occupied territory in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. Russian forces have since been advancing toward Slovyansk, claiming control of Staryi Karavan, and southeast towards Siversk, claiming control of Dibrova; neither claim can currently be verified. To continue either advance Russian forces would need to bridge the Siversky Donets River, which poses a significant obstacle. Moscow is reportedly resupplying forces in Izyum in preparation for renewed offensives towards Slovyansk from this direction.

Ukraine did not launch further significant assaults along the administrative border between the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions May 30-31, indicating the recent counteroffensive in this area may have been limited in scope. Russian forces are reportedly conducting counterattacks attempting to recapture several settlements, including Bilohirka and Andriivka. Ukrainian military sources further report that Russian reinforcements, including reservists, continue to arrive in the area to defend Russian positions and possibly renew Russia's offensive towards Mykolaiv or Kriviy Rih.

North of Kharkiv city, battles continue with very few gains on either side. Russian forces are continuing to shell communities along the front line. Russia also continues to shell targets further north in Sumy and Chernihiv regions, highlighting the continued threat from such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border. Ukrainian partisan activity is increasingly reported in the Zaporizhzhia Region, where an explosion in Melitopol early on May 30 targeted occupation administration officials, wounding several.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, through at least June 5. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia has increasingly focused men, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the encirclement of defenders in the Severodonetsk area and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas are conducting coordinated and uncoordinated withdrawals from poor defensive positions following the partial Russian breakthrough at Popasna. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The threat of said weapons shipments in some way sparking a wider conflagration between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service