Ukraine: Russian offensive operations remain largely stalled in east of country as of May 9 /update 94

Event

Russian forces continued to focus their offensive on the east of Ukraine as of May 9, with the most intense fighting reported in the Luhansk Region and northern parts of the Donetsk Region. However, Moscow's troops have not gained significant territory in recent days. Similarly, Ukrainian forces' counteroffensive north of Kharkiv has not yielded any notable gains over the past day. Both Mykolaiv and Odesa were targeted in missile strikes May 8-9.

Despite its general lack of territorial progress over the past 24 hours, the Ukrainian counteroffensive north of Kharkiv has made significant gains in recent days. Russian forces may have withdrawn as far as Lyptsi, and Ukrainian units have recaptured Tsyrkuny - a town that had served as a hub for Russian artillery groups shelling Kharkiv; hence, it is possible that Russian artillery fire against the city could diminish somewhat in the near future. Russian forces have been destroying bridges as they retreat, suggesting their withdrawal is deliberate and that they may have no plans to retake that territory over the near term. East of Kharkiv, Ukrainian and Russian forces still occupy opposite sides of the Siversky Donets River near Staryi Saltiv; it is unlikely that Ukrainian forces will attempt to bridge the river in the coming days.

In the Izyum sector, Russian forces have not made any progress toward Barvinkove or Slovyansk in recent days. Ukrainian counteroffensives from the west and northwest may have positioned units less than 20 km (12 miles) from Izyum, which could threaten Russia's ability to resupply and support troops fighting in this sector. Ukrainian officials have confirmed that their forces have withdrawn from Popasna; however, the Kremlin's offensive elsewhere in the Luhansk Region and northern Donetsk Region has largely stalled. Fighting and shelling continue to be reported in several locations along the front line, from Shandryholove, located north of Lyman, to Vojevodivka, located north of Severodonetsk.

Elsewhere in the Donetsk Region, Ukrainian authorities have confirmed that all women, children, and elderly civilians have been evacuated from Mariupol's besieged Azovstal Steel Plant. Russian forces have now reportedly stepped up assaults on the facility in an ongoing attempt to clear the last Ukrainian defenders.

Russian forces have conducted no new offensive operations in the Kherson Region over the past day, opting instead to conduct reconnaissance operations and regroup their front lines. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed Russian offensive toward Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih from Kherson in the coming days.

Russian forces have stepped up missile attacks and airstrikes against targets, including rail infrastructure, in central and western Ukraine in recent days in a likely effort to follow through on threats to prevent foreign weapon shipments from reaching the battlefield.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Trostyanets station has partially reopened and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; however, in Zaporizhzhia city, an extended curfew is in effect 19:00 May 8-05:00 May 10. An extended curfew is also in place in Melitopol and Odesa May 8-10. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's campaign in eastern Ukraine has become sluggish at best over the past week, while the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the Kharkiv and Izyum sectors appears to be gaining momentum. In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Moscow has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine and such a move may be imminent. Still, Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex theater-level maneuvers that they have generally been believed to possess.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service