Ukraine: Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues May 17 /update 102

Event

Russia is continuing its offensive in Ukraine as of May 17; the majority of the fighting is taking place in the eastern Donbas area as Russia attempts to gain control of the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Regions, and north and east of Kharkiv as the Ukrainian counteroffensive pushes Russian troops back toward the international border.

The most intense clashes are still taking place near Severodonetsk in the Luhansk Region; Russian forces are attempting to encircle the city but have made slow gains in recent days, being repeatedly repulsed from the Toshkivka. The T1303/P66 highway, which links Popasna with Severodonetsk via Zolote, remains under Ukrainian control but is a likely target for Russia's advance in this area. Russia advanced east of Popasna as far as Pylypchatyne before being pushed back by Ukrainian troops. This push may indicate Russia is attempting to reach Bakhmut and Ukrainian-held highways connecting the city to Severodonetsk and Slovyansk. Russia also continues to shell and stage sporadic ground assaults on settlements further south in the Donetsk Region.

North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces reportedly remain near the Russian border after repelling a Russian assault on Ternova May 16. Reports suggest Russian troops are digging in to resist further Ukrainian advances, likely to keep Ukraine out of artillery range of Belgorod and main routes supplying operations in Izyum. On the Izyum Axis, Russian forces were reportedly repulsed from Dovhenke May 16.

Further south, at least 264 Ukrainian fighters were evacuated from the Azovstal Steel Plant in Mariupol late May 16. Efforts are ongoing to secure the evacuation of Ukrainian soldiers remaining in the facility; Russia will likely facilitate the evacuations in order to end the resistance in Mariupol and enable the redeployment of troops and resources tied up in the city to support the offensive in other sectors of the front.

Elsewhere, Russian forces conducted a missile strike against a military target in the Yaroviv District of Lviv Region early May 17; the exact location is unconfirmed but is likely in the vicinity of Starychi which hosts a military base. Ukrainian officials state rail infrastructure was damaged in the strike but did not report casualties. Russia also targeted the Zatoka Bridge southwest of Odesa for the fifth time in missile strikes May 17; Ukrainian officials report the bridge is not currently operational. Russia continues to shell targets in the Sumy and Chernihiv areas highlighting the continued risks of such attacks, particularly in areas close to the border; an attempted Russian incursion across the border near Serednya-Buda in northern Sumy Region was repelled by Ukrainian forces May 17.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northward from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskyi Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to front lines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service