Ukraine: Ukrainian counterattacks near Kharkiv continuing as of May 7 /update 92

Event

Ukrainian counterattacks to the north and east of Kharkiv continue to see success as of May 7. Over the previous 48 hours, Ukrainian forces have retaken a number of towns along the T2104 highway east of Kharkiv, including Oleksandrivka, Fedorivka, Ukrayinka, Shestakovo, and Peremoha; they have reportedly moved westward from Staryi Saltiv. Russian forces in Tsyrkuny and Ruski Tyshky have reportedly come under pressure from Ukrainian advances north of Kharkiv and have destroyed a number of bridges in the area. Moreover, Ukrainian forces entered the town of Cherkaski Tyshky on May 6, where they are clashing with Russian troops; the town remains contested.

In the Izyum sector, Ukrainian units repulsed Russian attacks on Barvinkove. A number of Ukrainian troops are reportedly concentrated in Protopopivka to the west of Izyum and may attempt to approach the Russian-held town.

Russian forces have made some recent gains in Luhansk Region; however, the Kremlin's offensive in other areas has largely stalled. Russian assaults on Rubizhne continued; there are unconfirmed reports of Russian attacks on Vojevodivka to the north of Severodonetsk, as well as of Russian troops' having captured Voronove to the southeast of the city. Russia continues to shell Ukrainian settlements across the front line and launched unsuccessful attacks on Severodonetsk and Popasna; Ukrainian officials anticipate Russia will intensify attacks on these towns in the coming days.

In the Donetsk Region, Russian forces have continued assaults on Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Plant in an ongoing attempt to clear Ukrainian defenders from the facility; however, there has been little activity elsewhere in the region over the past 24 hours.

In the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, Russian forces conducted no new offensive operations over the past 24 hours, opting instead to reinforce their front lines against a potential Ukrainian counterattack. Russia continues to shell Ukrainian-held settlements near the northern administrative border of the Kherson Region. Ukrainian counteroffensives are reportedly ongoing north of Kherson city, near Snihurivka, though exact details remain unconfirmed. Ukrainian military officials anticipate a renewed offensive toward Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih from Kherson in the coming days.

Russian forces have stepped up missile attacks and airstrikes against targets, including rail infrastructure, in central and western Ukraine in recent days in a likely effort to follow through on threats to prevent foreign weapon shipments from reaching the battlefield.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Trostyanets station has partially reopened and Slovyansk station is operating only partial services. Civilian aviation remains suspended and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; however, in Zaporizhzhia city, an extended curfew will be in effect 19:00 May 8-05:00 May 10. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice depending on local developments.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Despite increased bombardments and ground assaults in the Donbas, Russian progress has been slow in recent days. Some units withdrawn from northern Ukraine are confirmed to have entered combat zones in the Kharkiv and Luhansk regions. However, the losses suffered by these redeployed units during the initial days of the war and their piecemeal introduction into Ukraine's eastern oblasts have undermined any potential for Moscow to see rapid territorial gains.

In the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, Ukrainian forces are reportedly well prepared and offering stiff resistance to Russian advances. Nonetheless, Russia has yet to commit all of the forces it currently has deployed within Ukraine, though such a move appears imminent. Russia may attempt to individually encircle fortified towns in the Donbas and/or attempt to cut off major groups of Ukrainian forces from western supply lines. Russian forces are yet to display the high-level capability to successfully conduct complex, theater-level maneuvers, though they are believed to possess this ability; the recent deployment of Chief of the General Staff General Valery Vasilyevich Gerasimov to Izyum could be the start of attempts to achieve this.

The late April series of explosions in the separatist region of Transnistria in Moldova, which is home to approximately 1,500 Russian troops, may have been intended to divert Ukrainian attention away from the Donbas to a potential threat in the country's southwest. Similar incidents could occur in the coming weeks to maintain this threat. Nevertheless, the small number of Russian troops in Transnistria, coupled with their relative isolation and the logistical difficulty Moscow would face in reinforcing or supplying them, suggest that no major threat is likely to materialize from this sector in the short term.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters. Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service