Ukraine: Ukrainian forces make gains north of Kharkiv as Russia's offensive continues in Donbas May 14 /update 99

Event

Ukrainian forces continue to make progress north and east of Kharkiv as of May 14. Fighting continues along the entire Donbas front line, with the most intense clashes reported around Severodonetsk; however, Russia has made limited progress over the day.

North of Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced as far as Ternova, approximately 3 km (1.9 miles) from the Russian-Ukrainian border. Recent Ukrainian gains around Kharkiv suggest that Russian troops may have withdrawn from the area. As a result, Russian shelling has been targeting areas increasingly distant from Kharkiv day by day as artillery units are withdrawn in the face of the Ukrainian advance.

Russia's offensive in northern areas of the Donetsk Region has been continuing, with a renewed attack south of Izyum towards Slovyansk being repelled near Dolyn. Airstrikes also resumed against Ukrainian positions around Izyum after a pause of several days, although these strikes may have been defensive rather than preceding an offensive move.

Intense fighting has continued in the area between the towns of Oleksandrivka and Lyman, both of which reportedly remain under Ukrainian control. Russian forces are likely attempting to encircle and capture Severodonetsk, although they have suffered significant setbacks while attempting to cross the Siverskyi Donets River in recent days. Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed Russian pontoon bridges near Kreminna and Bilohorivka, inflicting heavy losses to men and equipment in the process. From the south, Russian forces recently captured Popasna and appear to be attempting to reach the T1303/P66 highway, which runs to Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. A related Russian assault near Zolote and Orikhove was repelled May 13.

Elsewhere in the region, small-scale ground assaults and intense exchanges of artillery fire have been reported in Avdiivka, Marinka, and Novoselivka. Russian assaults have been repulsed. Russian shelling of Hulaipole and Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia has also been reported.

Authorities in Kyiv estimate that more than 1,000 Ukrainian fighters remain in Mariupol's Azovstal Steel Plant; Russian forces ceased assaults against the plant on May 12 in favor of taking unspecified actions to prevent the defenders from conducting hit-and-run attacks via the plant's underground tunnel network. Airstrikes and artillery shelling continued to target the building.

While clashes have been reported along the line of contact at the administrative border between the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, Russian forces have conducted no new significant offensive operations in the area in recent days, opting instead to conduct reconnaissance, resupply, and reinforce their front lines. Ukrainian military officials believe a renewed Russian offensive toward Mykolaiv or Kryvyi Rih from Kherson remains possible in the coming weeks.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree through May 25. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 22:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 21:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia and Sumy regions, the curfew runs 21:00-05:00; in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia Region, an extended curfew will be in effect 18:00 May 13-06:00 May 16. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia's seizure of settlements both north and south of Severodonetsk in recent days, combined with reported troop movements northwards from the recently captured town of Popasna, suggests that Moscow may have once again amended its immediate objectives amid the otherwise sluggish campaign in the Donbas. The recent moves indicate that Russian forces arrayed along the Siverskiy Donets River may increasingly attempt to encircle pockets of defenders, such as those around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, rather than attempt a grander encirclement of Ukrainian forces in a large swath of territory from Popasna to Slovyansk.

Moscow is increasingly committing forces withdrawn from elsewhere in the combat zone to frontlines in the Donbas; however, the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive north and east of the city of Kharkiv may prompt Russian forces to redirect troops to protect the main supply route between Belgorod, Russia, and Izyum in Ukraine's Kharkiv Region, where large concentrations of Russian troops and materiel are located.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service