04 May 2022 | 08:05 AM UTC
US: Adverse weather forecast across some southern and central states through early May 6 /update 4
Severe weather forecast across parts of southern and central US through at least early May 6. Tornadoes, flooding, and disruptions possible.
Event
Successive storm systems are forecast to bring further severe weather across southern and central parts of the US through at least May 6. Severe thunderstorms will likely be accompanied by heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail storms, and possible tornadoes.
The NWS's Storm Prediction Center has warned of an "Enhanced Risk" (level 3 on a five-tier scale) of severe thunderstorms over parts of northwest Texas into Oklahoma May 4, with a "Slight Risk" (Level 2) for portions of northern and central Texas, Oklahoma, and far western Arkansas. An "Enhanced Risk" of severe thunderstorms is forecast across the Arklatex and Ozarks May 5 through early May 6, with a "Slight Risk" from northeastern Texas northeastward into southern Missouri and western Tennessee.
In "Enhanced Risk" (Level 3) areas, storms of varying intensity are forecast and these will be more numerous, persistent, and widespread than those in areas where a "Slight Risk" (Level 2) has been issued. Storms in the Slight Risk areas are not forecast to be widespread or long-lived, though isolated intense storm and tornado activity is still possible.
The NWS's Weather Prediction Center ) has issued a "Moderate Risk" (level 3 on a four-tier scale) for excessive rainfall for portions of the central and southern Plains May 4 with a "Slight Risk" over northeastern Texas, most of Oklahoma, northwestern Arkansas, southwestern Missouri, and eastern Kansas. A "Slight Risk" is in place over portions of the mid-Mississippi Valley into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast states May 5 through early May 6.
Additionally, flood and flash flood watches and warnings are in place for northern Texas, eastern and central Oklahoma, southeastern Kansas, northwestern Arkansas, and southwestern Missouri. Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.
Hazardous Conditions
Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites located downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall.
Authorities could issue mandatory evacuation orders for flood-prone communities over the coming days, as well as tornado warnings advising the public to shelter in place. Disruptions to electricity and telecommunications services are possible where severe weather impacts utility networks.
Transport
The severe weather will likely contribute to transport disruptions throughout the region. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.
Severe weather could also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports in the region, including but not limited to Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport (DFW), Saint Louis International Airport (STL), and Memphis International Airport (MEM). Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas that see heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.
Localized business disruptions may occur in flood- or tornado-hit areas; some businesses might not operate at full capacity because of damage to facilities, possible evacuations, and some employees' inability to reach work sites.
Advice
Monitor local media for weather updates and related advisories. Confirm all transport reservations and business appointments before travel. Make allowances for localized travel delays and potential supply chain disruptions where flooding has been forecast. Do not drive on flooded roads. Review contingency plans and be prepared to move quickly to shelter if tornado warnings are issued. Charge battery-powered devices in the case of prolonged electricity outages.
