Pacific Ocean: Tropical Depression Celia tracking northward in Pacific Ocean late June 17 /update 1

Event

Tropical Depression Celia is tracking northward in the Pacific Ocean late June 17. As of 22:00 CDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 190 km (120 miles) south of San Salvador, El Salvador. Forecast models indicate the system will maintain its strength as it continues to track northward June 18, making a close approach to southwestern El Salvador. The storm is expected to remain a depression as it turns to track westward then west-southwestward June 18-19, making a close approach to southern Guatemala's coast before moving generally away from Central America. The storm is forecast to strengthen into a tropical storm as it turns to track west-northwestward June 20. Some strengthening is expected as it continues to track generally west-northwestward off the southwest coast of Mexico June 21-22. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur over the coming days.

As of late June 17, the National Hurricane Center has not issued any watches or warnings in relation to the storm. Heavy rainfall is forecast over parts of far southern Mexico, Guatemala, and El Salvador through June 19. Some areas may see 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) of rainfall, with isolated maximums of over 20 cm (8 inches). The heavy downpours could trigger flooding and landslides in parts of the affected areas.

El Salvador Civil Protection has issued red alerts (the highest level on a three-tier scale) for coastal municipalities due to the threat of the storm system, as well as orange alerts for volcanic and northern mountain ranges and yellow alerts for the rest of the country. The National Service for Territorial Studies (SNET) has warned of medium to significant impacts in coastal areas and parts of the volcanic mountain range over the next 24 hours, including fallen trees and flying debris due to strong winds and heavy rainfall, which may trigger flooding and landslides. Heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to continue in southern and central areas June 19

Guatemala's National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology (INSUVIMEH) has warned that the system will bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to some southern and central parts of the country over the coming days. Due to previous rainfall, the ground is already saturated in many areas, and the additional showers could trigger flash flooding, landslides, and lahars on volcanic slopes.

Heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. Localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible if weather conditions prove hazardous.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters pose a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
National Weather Service
El Salvador National Service for Territorial Studies (SNET)
Guatemala National Institute for Seismology, Vulcanology, Meteorology, and Hydrology
Honduras Center for Atmospheric, Oceanographic and Seismic Studies
Mexican Meteorological Service