Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 11 /update 127

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues as of June 11, with the most intense fighting still ongoing in Severodonetsk. Moscow's forces are making slow territorial gains under the cover of intense artillery and rocket fire; however, current information suggests they have yet to take full control of the city. Ukrainian resistance reportedly remains concentrated in the industrial area on the west side of Severodonetsk, with Kyiv's forces still in control of the Azot industrial zone and the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway (T1302). Russian forces continued heavy shelling against Lysychansk, Toshkivka, Ustynivka, and Zolote on June 10; intense fighting is occurring in this area as Russian units attempt to drive northwards to assault Lysychansk directly. Combat operations are also ongoing east of Bakhmut as Russian forces seek to push from the Popasna salient to sever the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway. The threat from Russian artillery means some Ukrainian supplies to the Severodonetsk area are being routed via Siversk.

Russian forces in Izyum continued assaults southwest toward Slovyansk June 10 but remain unable to advance past Ukrainian defenders around Dovhenke and Bohorodychne. Reports suggest Russia is took control of Svyatohirsk on June 9 and Pryshyb on June 10, meaning that Russian forces have now been able to cross the Siverskiy Donets River and thereby threaten Slovyansk from additional directions. Slovyansk is very likely Russia's next main objective.

No changes of territory were confirmed at the frontlines north of Kharkiv or at the Kherson-Mykolaiv administrative border. Russian troops are fortifying their positions in both locations against further Ukrainian offensives and are launching sporadic counterattacks of their own in attempts to recapture recently lost settlements.

Intense shelling also continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, and at the frontline along the Kherson regional administrative border. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 12. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its personnel, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service