Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 16 /update 132

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine is continuing June 16, though there have been few significant developments over the previous 24 hours. Russian forces are continuing to assault Severodonetsk from multiple directions supported by intense artillery fire but have been unable to dislodge the remaining Ukrainian troops in the industrial area in the west of the city. Moscow has called for their surrender after cutting off major supply lines and evacuation routes in recent days; a proposed humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians failed June 15. Russian troops are still attempting to gain access to the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway with fighting ongoing in several nearby settlements. Reports suggest Moscow has recently sent additional resources to support this objective.

Slovyansk is Russia's likely second main objective after securing control of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area. Russian forces in Izyum are continuing their offensive southeast towards Slovyansk; both Russia and Ukraine claimed to be in control of Dolyna June 15, but it seems likely that Russia has captured Dovhenke in recent days. A lack of news on combat south of Lyman suggests Ukraine has completely withdrawn across the Siverskiy Donets river at Raihorodok to prepare defenses for an anticipated assault towards Slovyansk.

Combat is ongoing north of Kharkiv along a frontline between Tsupivka, Ternova, and Rubizhne; Russian and Ukrainian officials give conflicting accounts of control of settlements in this area; actual territorial control is difficult to verify. The territorial situation is similarly unclear along the frontline between Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, though reports suggest Moscow is concentrated on reinforcing defensive positions against further Ukrainian counterattacks around Davydiv Brid and between the cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson.

Intense shelling also continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, at the international border in Chernihiv and Sumy regions, and at the frontline along the Kherson regional administrative border. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. A missile strike that hit a suburb of Sumy city resulted in multiple civilian casualties June 16.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 19. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its personnel, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service