Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 7 /update 123

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues as of June 7. The most intense combat is taking place in the Severodonetsk area of the Luhansk Region, where Russian forces are continuing attempts to capture the city. Ukrainian military officials have stated the situation in the city deteriorated June 6 after reportedly successful Ukrainian counterattacks June 4-5. Accurate territorial assessments are difficult as the situation in the city is dynamic, and much available information is unverifiable or contradictory. However, it seems likely that the success of the recent Ukrainian counterattacks was overstated and that Russian forces have retaken some ground as of June 7. Russian forces continue to conduct heavy bombardment of Severodonetsk, as well as the neighboring town of Lysychansk and the key settlements of Toshkivka and Ustynivka located to the south of Lysychansk.

Ukrainian forces continue to repulse Russian assaults on their positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, the main supply route for defenders in Severodonetsk. The heaviest combat is occurring around Berestove and Bilogorivka. Additionally, Russia has launched numerous missiles and airstrikes against targets near Bakhmut. Ukraine retains control of the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, but transport along the highway is vulnerable to Russian artillery.

Russian forces in Izyum launched another unsuccessful assault southwest towards Slovyansk June 6, being repulsed around Dovhenke. Fighting is also reported around Svyatohirsk and Staryi Karavan, indicating Russian attempts to link forces on the Lyman and Izyum axes. However, Russian forces are advancing slowly in this area, as the focus for Russian offensive action likely remains Severodonetsk. That being said, Russia's likely next target is Slovyansk, and Russian forces will be keen to set favorable tactical conditions ahead of a potential offensive on the location. Slovyansk is unlikely to face Russian ground assaults in the immediate term.

Russia continues to maintain a defensive posture in the southern Kherson Region in the face of Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive along the administrative border between this region and the Mykolaiv Region. Russia has conducted numerous airstrikes and missile attacks against suspected Ukrainian positions in Nova Zorya, Stepova Dolyna, Kobzartsi, and elsewhere in the area, while limited ground assaults have been directed towards Kochubeivka and Vysokopillya. Major Russian attacks are not anticipated in this area, given Russia's focus on the Severodonetsk area. Separately, Russian forces continue to defend against renewed Ukrainian counterattacks north and east of Kharkiv city; fighting is reported around Tsupivka, Turove, Velyki Prokhody, Ternova, Rubizhne, and Stary Saltiv; it is unclear who is currently in control of these towns.

Intense shelling continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, as well as on targets northeast of Kharkiv city. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Notably, Russia launched missiles at Kyiv early June 5, damaging a rail car repair factory. At least one person was wounded in the incident, which was the first missile attack to target the capital in more than a month.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 12. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its men, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service