Ukraine: Intense combat continues in Severodonetsk as of June 8 /update 124

Event

Russia's offensive against Ukraine continues as of June 8. Russian forces are continuing attempts to capture Severodonetsk, in Luhansk Region, with the most intense fighting occurring around this area. Control of the city is fluid and difficult to verify, but it appears Russia is making slow gains by razing areas with artillery and rocket fire to clear defenders before advancing as of June 8. Russian forces also continue to conduct heavy bombardment of neighboring Lysychansk and the key settlements of Toshkivka and Ustynivka to the south. Intense fighting is ongoing around Hirske, Toshkivka, and Ustynivka as Russian forces attempt to drive northwards to assault Lysychansk directly. In the Popasna salient, Russian troops continue to launch unsuccessful assaults on settlements near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway.

Russian forces in Izyum launched further assaults southwest toward Slovyansk June 7, with clashes reported around Dovhenke, Dolyna, Krasnopillya, and Bohorodychne, but these were again repulsed by Ukrainian defenders. Russian officials claim to be making steady advances north of Slovyansk, claiming control of Yarova June 7; this is likely as forces from Lyman attempt to link up with those advancing from Izyum. However, Russian forces are advancing slowly in this area, as the focus for Russian offensive action likely remains Severodonetsk. That being said, Russia's likely next target is Slovyansk, and Russian forces will be keen to set favorable tactical conditions ahead of a potential offensive on the location. Slovyansk is unlikely to face Russian ground assaults in the immediate term.

Russia continues to maintain a defensive posture in the southern Kherson Region in the face of Ukraine's ongoing counteroffensive along the administrative border between this region and the Mykolaiv Region. Russian forces are reportedly withdrawing from the nearby Zaporizhzhia Region, likely to support this effort. Russian troops launched unsuccessful counterattacks against Lozove and Bila Krynytsia June 7. Major Russian attacks are not anticipated in this area, given Russia's focus on Severodonetsk. Separately, Russian forces continue to defend against renewed Ukrainian counterattacks north and east of Kharkiv city. Fighting is reported around Tsupivka, Turove, Velyki Prokhody, Ternova, Rubizhne, and Stary Saltiv; it is unclear who is currently in control of these towns.

Intense shelling continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, as well as on targets northeast of Kharkiv city. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities. Notably, Russia launched missiles at Kyiv early June 5, damaging a rail car repair factory. At least one person was wounded in the incident, which was the first missile attack to target the capital in more than a month.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect from 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 12. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place from 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 22:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to focus the majority of its men, military equipment, and operational resources on furthering the battle for Severodonetsk and, to a lesser extent, on approaching the city of Slovyansk from the north and west. Ukrainian forces in the Donbas have withdrawn from poorer defensive positions and are now conducting limited counterattacks in Severodonetsk and the surrounding area to frustrate Russian advances and attrite Russian forces. Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has rebuffed Western attempts to create a format for negotiations between the Kremlin and Kyiv. Instead, the Kremlin has repeatedly warned the West against sending increasingly advanced offensive weaponry to Ukraine and used the weapons shipments as partial justification for ongoing missile attacks and airstrikes against targets in central and western Ukraine. Despite the increased aerial bombardment in recent weeks, Western weapons shipments will likely flow ever faster into Ukraine as the conflict continues. The possibility of these weapons shipments sparking a wider conflict between Russia and NATO remains minimal.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Stockpile food, fuel, and water when possible and safe to do so. Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service