Ukraine: Russia continues to make gains in Ukraine's Luhansk Region June 24 /update 140

Event

Russia's offensive in Ukraine continues to be focused in the east of the country as of June 24. Ukrainian officials ordered their forces begin withdrawing from Severodonetsk early June 24; no time frame for the withdrawal has been given but it is likely Russia will take full control of the city in the coming days. Russian forces made further gains elsewhere in the Luhansk Region, approaching to within 5 km (3 miles) of Lysychansk from the south and pushing west towards Vovchoyarivka in attempts to encircle the city. Additionally, Russian forces have almost completed the encirclement of Ukrainian troops operating in the Hirske-Zolote area by taking control of Mykolaivka and Rai-Oleksandrivka; Ukrainian officials stated that Hirske was fully occupied June 24 after they ordered a withdrawal from the area.

Russian forces continue to attack positions along the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, making incremental gains June 23. The highway remains under Ukrainian control but is reportedly inoperable due to the proximity of Russian forces and the threat from artillery. Russian forces are also attempting to approach Bakhmut city from the southeast; fighting is reported around Vershyna.

Elsewhere in the east, Russian forces reportedly moved two tank units to Izyum June 23. This is likely in preparation of a renewed offensive toward Slovyansk once control of the Severodonetsk-Lysychansk area is secure. Assaults from Izyum towards Slovyansk have been reduced in recent days but fighting continues around Krasnopillya, Dolyna, and Bohorodychne. North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces are continuing efforts to prevent Ukrainian troops from reaching the shared border or key supply routes.

The territorial situation remains unclear along the front line between the Kherson and Mykolaiv regions, no significant developments were reported June 23. Ukrainian counterattacks are reportedly making incremental progress toward Kherson city; Russian forces are reinforcing their frontlines and deploying additional artillery units to prevent further advance.

Intense shelling continues to be reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, around Mykolaiv, and at the international border in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions. Missile attacks have also continued to target transport infrastructure and military positions throughout the country, including in central and western cities.

Two unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) reportedly struck the Novoshakhtinsk oil refinery in Russia's Rostov Oblast on June 22, causing a fire at the facility. Firefighters quickly extinguished the blaze and no casualties were reported. Russian state media claimed that Ukraine was behind the attack; Ukrainian officials did not immediately claim responsibility for the strike.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least June 26. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine, with the greatest progress coming in Ukraine's Luhansk region. Russian forces will likely complete the capture of Severodonetsk in the coming days after Ukraine ordered a withdrawal from the city June 24, and rapid gains south of Lysychansk mean Russia is will soon be assaulting the city directly. The fall of these two cities would effectively give Russia complete control of Luhansk, a likely significant objective for Moscow. Russia will likely reprioritize assaults toward Slovyansk as their next objective; the territorial situation in this area has remained broadly the same for several days as Russia focused its efforts on Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The frontline north of Kharkiv has also stabilized in recent days, significant offensives are unlikely in the short term.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are likely coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on defensive positions. However, Ukraine has utilized the Kremlin's focus in the east by counterattacking toward Kherson city and making incremental gains in this area.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to occasionally target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service