Ukraine: Russian forces continue to assault Lysychansk June 28 /update 144

Event

Russian forces are continuing to assault Lysychansk as of June 28 as Moscow focuses its efforts on gaining complete control of Ukraine's Luhansk region. Intense combat is reported in the southern and southwestern outskirts of the city around Pidlisne and the Lysychansk Oil Refinery. Russian forces reportedly fought through Vovchoyarivka before being repelled around Verkhnokomyanka; the advance along this axis threatens to encircle Ukrainian defenders in Lysychansk if it reaches Bilohorivka. Russian forces have also continued to stage attacks on multiple settlements near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway, including Berestove and Yakolivka, but Ukraine reportedly remains in control of the route.

Elsewhere in the east of the country, Russian forces have launched assaults in the Bakhmut sector, advancing towards Pokrovske from Pylypchatyne in the east and Klynove in the southeast. In the Slovyansk direction, Russian forces advancing from Izyum were again repulsed around Dolyna.

Russian forces launched a series of counterattacks around Kharkiv city June 27, toward Demetrivka to the north and Dovhalivka to the southeast. Ukrainian officials state both attacks were repulsed and Russian forces returned to their previous positions. In the south of Ukraine, reports suggest Ukraine continues to have success in counterattacks between the cities of Mykolaiv and Kherson, and Ukrainian troops retook Potomkyne in the north of the region.

Apart from the intense fighting along the eastern front line, Russian forces launched missile strikes on targets across Ukraine June 25-27, including in areas that have seen little action in recent weeks. Casualty figures following the missile strike at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk have been revised, reporting at least 18 dead and 60 wounded. Further missile strikes targeted Mykolaiv and Dnipro June 28. Shelling has otherwise been reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, and along the international border in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least July 3. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine, with the greatest progress coming in Ukraine's Luhansk Region. Russian forces' primary focus will likely be the encirclement of Ukrainian defenders in the Lysychansk area following Moscow's gains to the south of the city and the capture of Severodonetsk. The fall of Lysychansk would effectively give Russia complete control of Luhansk, which is likely a significant objective for Moscow. Russia will likely reprioritize assaults toward Slovyansk as its next objective; the territorial situation in this area has remained broadly the same for several days as Russia has focused its efforts on operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. Ukrainian troops might withdraw from Lysychansk to areas that they could more easily defend in the coming days. The front line north of Kharkiv has also stabilized in recent days, with significant offensives unlikely in the area over the short term.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukraine has nonetheless utilized the Kremlin's focus in the east to stage counterattacks toward Kherson city, making incremental gains in the area.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service