Ukraine: Russian forces fully capture Severodonetsk as of June 25 /update 141

Event

Ukrainian officials confirmed June 25 that Russian forces had fully occupied Severodonetsk after Ukrainian troops began to withdraw from the city the day before. Pro-Russian separatists also claimed that Moscow-aligned forces had taken control of the Azot industrial zone and had evacuated some 800 civilians from the plant. Kyiv has asserted that its withdrawal from Severodonetsk aims to reposition Ukrainian forces to better fight from higher ground in neighboring Lysychansk, the last remaining urban area under Ukrainian control in the Luhansk Region. Russian forces are now reportedly attempting to encircle Lysychansk from the south, with pro-Russian separatists claiming that Russian forces and allied separatist fighters have advanced into the city and are clashing with Ukrainian troops within it.

Pursuant to their goal of encircling Lysychansk, Russian forces have reportedly taken control of all settlements in the Hirske District of the Luhansk Region and have likely surrounded Ukrainian forces in the Zolote area. Russian forces have also continued to stage attacks on multiple settlements near the Bakhmut-Lysychansk highway to cut off Ukrainian access to the route; combat has notably continued around Mykolaivka and Berestove. Additionally, Moscow has launched airstrikes around Yakolivka, Pokrovske, and Klynove.

Elsewhere in the east of the country, Russian forces have launched unsuccessful assaults south of Izyum and northwest of Slovyansk in recent days. South of Izyum, Ukrainian forces have repelled Russian attacks on Kurulka and Virnopillya. In the Slovyansk direction, Kyiv's troops have also repulsed Russian assaults on Bohorodychne and Dolyna. North of Kharkiv city, Russian forces are continuing efforts to prevent Ukrainian troops from reaching the shared border or key supply routes.

Apart from the intense fighting along the eastern front line, Russian forces launched a series of missile attacks on targets across Ukraine June 25, including in areas that have seen relatively little action in recent weeks. Russian aircraft operating in the skies above Belarus reportedly fired dozens of missiles into Ukraine, with most targeting military infrastructure. Around 20 missiles fired from Belarus targeted sites in Chernihiv Region. Ukrainian officials also claimed that Russian forces launched around 30 missiles at Zhytomyr Region, killing at least one soldier, as well as four missiles from the Black Sea that struck a "military object" in Yavoriv, Lviv Region. Additionally, at least nine Russian-fired missiles hit Mykolaiv; the city's mayor has called for its residents to leave amid the daily barrage of Russian shelling despite successful Ukrainian counterattacks in the area in recent weeks. Overall, the June 25 salvo was among the most extensive Russian bombardments of Ukrainian territory in recent weeks. Shelling has otherwise been reported in settlements throughout the Donbas, north of Kharkiv, and along the international border in the Chernihiv and Sumy regions.

In the south of the country, Ukrainian counterattacks are reportedly making incremental progress toward Kherson city. Ukrainian military officials have claimed that their counteroffensive in the vicinity of the Kherson-Dnipropetrovsk administrative border has prompted Russian forces to retreat to Olhyne. In general, Russian forces are reinforcing their front lines and deploying additional artillery units to prevent a further Ukrainian advance.

Disruptions and Shortages
Ukrainian Railways (UZ) has restored near-regular commuter services throughout much of the central and western parts of the country and continues to operate evacuation trains from most major cities, including Kyiv; however, rail services are subject to disruptions without warning. Civilian aviation remains suspended, and the nation's seaports are closed.

The government has extended Ukraine's existing nationwide martial law decree until Aug. 23. Curfews are in effect in multiple regions. In Kyiv Region, a curfew is in effect 23:00-05:00, with some municipality-level variations, until at least July 3. In Mykolaiv, a curfew is in place 22:00-06:00. In Zaporizhzhia Region, the curfew runs 23:00-05:00. Generally, civilians must stay indoors during curfew hours; exemptions exist for workers in critical infrastructure and persons seeking urgent medical care or bomb shelters. Depending on local developments, authorities may extend or amend curfew hours on short notice.

Intermittent telecommunications, internet, and utility disruptions continue across much of the country. Reports also indicate a shortage of basic supplies, including groceries and pharmaceutical products, in multiple cities facing Russian ground assaults. Finally, the National Bank of Ukraine has limited foreign currency transfers and withdrawals.

Context

Russia continues to make slow advances across multiple axes in Ukraine, with the greatest progress coming in Ukraine's Luhansk Region. Russian forces' primary focus will likely be the encirclement of Ukrainian defenders in the Lysychansk area following Moscow's gains to the south of the city and the capture of Severodonetsk. The fall of Lysychansk would effectively give Russia complete control of Luhansk, which is likely a significant objective for Moscow. Russia will likely reprioritize assaults toward Slovyansk as its next objective; the territorial situation in this area has remained broadly the same for several days as Russia has focused its efforts on operations around Severodonetsk and Lysychansk. The front line north of Kharkiv has also stabilized in recent days, with significant offensives unlikely in the area over the short term.

Ukraine likely aims to continue weakening Russian forces with the goal of eventually stalling Russia's advance. However, Kyiv's forces are coming under increased pressure in the Donbas as Russia continues to conduct intense artillery and aerial bombardments ahead of daily ground assaults on Ukrainian defensive positions. Ukraine has nonetheless utilized the Kremlin's focus in the east to stage counterattacks toward Kherson city, making incremental gains in the area.

While the conflict remains largely concentrated in the east and the south of the country, particularly in the Donbas, Kharkiv, and Kherson regions, residents are increasingly returning to central and western areas, particularly Kyiv. Additionally, despite numerous foreign governments continuing to advise against travel to Ukraine, many business operations are resuming in the country's central and western regions; however, strikes continue to target critical infrastructure and other sites across the country.

Advice

Avoid travel to Ukraine until the situation stabilizes; consider exiting the country if safe to do so. Where fighting or airstrikes are occurring, shelter in place until the situation becomes clear. If officials report incoming fire, stay away from windows and exterior walls. Strictly heed the instructions of local security personnel, particularly when ordered to air-raid shelters.

Maintain contact with diplomatic representations. Confirm that a thorough communication plan exists to ensure rapid accountability for all personnel operating in Ukraine. Reconfirm the status of public transport services, road routes, and borders before departure. Due to the threat of unexploded ordnance, consider avoiding off-road travel. Travel on well-used routes only. Do not approach suspected unexploded ordnance.

Resources

Ukrainian Railways - UZ
Listing of Available Trains by City
State Border Guard Service