Caribbean Sea: Potential TC Two tracking westward in the Caribbean Sea early July 1 /update 6

Event

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two is tracking westward over the Caribbean Sea off the coast of northern Colombia as of early July 1. The storm made landfall June 28-30 over eastern Trinidad, Trinidad and Tobago; Isla Margarita, Nueva Esparta State, and Falcon State, Venezuela; and the Guajira Peninsula, La Guajira Department, Colombia. As of 05:00 EDT, the system's center of circulation was approximately 505 km (315 miles) east of Bluefields, Nicaragua. The storm system has yet to be classified as a tropical storm due to a lack of a well-defined structure; however, it is expected to form into a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours, upon which it will be renamed Tropical Storm Bonnie.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will strengthen as it tracks generally westward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and will likely make landfall along the southern part of Nicaragua's east coast as a strong tropical storm late July 1. The system is forecast to weaken as it tracks generally westward across southern Nicaragua close to the border with Costa Rica, before exiting into the North Pacific Ocean early July 2. The storm will subsequently strengthen into a Category 1 Hurricane as it tracks generally west-northwest in the North Pacific Ocean parallel to the southern coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico July 2-6. Some uncertainty remains in the track and intensity forecast, and significant changes could occur in the coming days.

As of early July 1, the following watches and warnings are in place:

• Hurricane Watch: from the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border to Laguna de Perlas, Nicaragua.

• Tropical Storm Warning: San Andreas, Colombia; from Limon, Costa Rica northward to Sandy Bay Sirpi, Nicaragua.

• Tropical Storm Watch: Cabo Blanco, Costa Rica, northward to Puerto Sandino, Nicaragua.

Officials could update and possibly extend the coverage of the relevant weather alerts over the coming days.

Heavy rainfall is forecast across Nicaragua and Costa Rica through July 2. Forecast models indicate rainfall of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with isolated higher totals around 30 cm (12 inches). Storm surges could raise water levels by 0.3-0.9 meters (1-3 feet) along the coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the storm makes landfall.

Authorities in Costa Rica have evacuated at least 930 residents from the northern region near the San Juan River on the border with Nicaragua due to the risk of the river flooding.

Authorities in Nicaragua have suspended Bluefields, Corn Island, El Bluff, and Puerto Cabezas ports located on the Caribbean coast, as well as the maritime terminals of Corinto, Potosi, Puerto Sandino, and San Juan del Sur on the Pacific coast and Granada, Moyogalpa, and San Carlos ports in the Great Lake of Nicaragua.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

The inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions and render some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary closures of ports are also possible. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.

Advice

Activate contingency plans in areas where officials forecast tropical storm conditions. Heed any evacuation orders that may be issued. Use extreme caution in low-lying coastal areas and near streams, creeks, and other waterways due to the potential for severe flooding and storm surge. Stockpile water, batteries, and other essentials in advance. Charge battery-powered devices when electricity is available; restrict the use of cellular phones to emergencies only. Power down mobile devices when not in use. Keep important documents and necessary medications in waterproof containers. Observe strict food and water precautions, as municipalities could issue boil-water advisories following flooding events. Take precautions against insect- and waterborne diseases in the coming weeks.

Plan accordingly for protracted commercial, transport, and logistics disruptions in areas in the path of the storm, especially if vital infrastructure is damaged. Seek updated information on road conditions before driving or routing shipments through areas where flooding has occurred. Confirm flights before checking out of hotels or driving to the airport; clearing passenger backlogs may take several days in some locations.

Resources

US National Hurricane Center
Colombia Institute of Hydrology, Meteorology and Environmental Studies (IDEAM)
Costa Rica National Institute of Meteorology
El Salvador National Service of Territorial Studies
Hidromet (Panama)
National Weather Service
Nicaragua Institute of Territorial Studies
Mexico National Meteorological Service (SMN)